Читать книгу Making Sense of the 2016 Elections - John A. Clark - Страница 12

While “The Party Decides” theory did a good job of explaining how the Democratic nomination campaign played out, it fell far short in explaining what happened for Republicans. The nomination of Donald Trump was hardly what Republican Party leaders wanted, and many could not even tolerate it. His ascension to the top during the nomination campaign flew directly in the face of what the authors of The Party Decides would have anticipated. At the same time, Trump’s success also helped to demonstrate the importance of this theory. Trump prevailed not because the party decided on him as its nominee, but rather because the party failed to decide on anyone as its nominee. By failing to back any viable alternative to Trump, party leaders made his path to the nomination much easier.

On the eve of the first contest—the February 1 Iowa caucuses—Trump had not been endorsed by a single governor or member of Congress. By comparison, Jeb Bush had lined up at least 30 such endorsements, Marco Rubio had more than two dozen, and Ted Cruz had more than a dozen national elected officials backing him. But even these totals were paltry compared to previous nomination races. For example, during the invisible primary in 2012, Romney had secured more endorsements on his own than the entire field had received before the Iowa caucuses in 2016. Thus, it was clear that the Republican establishment was not throwing its collective weight behind any particular candidate before the primaries and caucuses began, but it was also clear that Trump was not the preferred candidate of anyone in the party establishment. A lack of party support for Trump was not particularly surprising. Trump had not been an active member of the Republican Party until recently; and, as he had no experience in elected office, he had not built ties with Republican activists and elected officials. He had, in fact, frequently been an outspoken critic of the party and Republican officeholders, a pattern that made him an even less desirable nominee for the party.

Thus, if “The Party Decides” thesis was correct, Trump’s attempt to become the Republican Party’s nominee would not be met with success. Elites would line up their endorsements behind another candidate and work to ensure that person would become the nominee instead. They would do this in order to ensure that Republicans put forward the strongest nominee in the general election campaign, as well as someone who would work in cooperation with the party. But this did not happen. While some Republican elected officials did endorse alternative candidates like Bush, Rubio, and Cruz early in the process, the number of endorsements being made was not particularly large compared to previous election cycles. In 2016, it appeared as though the party was deciding not to decide.