Читать книгу Making Sense of the 2016 Elections - John A. Clark - Страница 9

The balance of the fundamentals heading into the 2016 presidential campaign suggested a contest that could go either way. Some political science models indicated that Democrats would win a narrow victory in the national popular vote, while other models suggested a narrow advantage for Republicans. Nearly every model indicated that it would be a very close contest.⁴ Thus, political scientists expected that 2016 would produce a tight contest for the White House; and given that fact, one thing that was likely to matter was who the parties would nominate to run for the presidency.