Читать книгу Risk Assessment - Marvin Rausand - Страница 159

The causal and frequency analysis determined the frequency/probability of the initiating event. Because the initiating event may develop through a series of possible accident scenarios into different end events, we also have to assign probabilities to the different scenarios that we have identified. This is in turn used to determine the frequency/probability of the end events.

In some simple methods, we do not assign probabilities to the scenarios, but use the probability of the initiating event directly in the risk analysis. This can pose some challenges for the risk analysis. We come back to this issue in Chapter 10.