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Marvin Rausand
Risk Assessment
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Страница 1
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Illustrations
Guide
Pages
WILEY SERIES IN STATISTICS IN PRACTICE
Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications
Copyright
Dedication
Страница 11
Acknowledgments
About the Companion Site
Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Risk in Our Modern Society
1.2 Important Trends
1.3 Major Accidents
1.4 History of Risk Assessment
1.4.1 Norway
1.5 Applications of Risk Assessment
1.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation
1.7 Problems
References
Note
Chapter 2 The Words of Risk Analysis 2.1 Introduction
2.2 Risk
2.2.1 Three Main Questions
Definition 2.1
(Risk)
Remark 2.1 (Positive and negative consequences)
Remark 2.2 (Danger)
2.2.1.1 Expressing Risk
2.2.2 Alternative Definitions of Risk
Remark 2.3 (Risk: singular or plural?)
2.3 What Can Go Wrong?
2.3.1 Accident Scenario
Definition 2.2 (Accident scenario)
Example 2.1
(Accident scenario in a process plant)
2.3.1.1 Categories of Accident Scenarios
Definition 2.3 (Reference accident scenario)
Definition 2.4 (Worst‐case accident scenario)
Definition 2.5 (Worst credible accident scenario)
2.3.2 Hazard
Definition 2.6 (Hazard)
Example 2.2
(Accident scenario involving more than one hazard)
2.3.3 Initiating Event and Hazardous Event
Definition 2.7 (Event)
Definition 2.8
(Initiating event)
2.3.3.1 Hazardous Event
Definition 2.9 (Hazardous event)
Example 2.3 (Hazardous events)
Example 2.4
(Crane operation)
2.3.4 The Bow‐tie Model
2.3.5 End Event and End State
Definition 2.10 (End event)
2.3.6 A Caveat
2.3.7 Enabling Events and Conditions
Definition 2.11 (Enabling events and conditions)
2.3.7.1 Active Failures and Latent Conditions
2.3.8 Technical Failures and Faults
Definition 2.12 (Failure of an item)
Definition 2.13 (Fault of an item)
Remark 2.4 (Analogy to death and being dead)
Example 2.5
(Pump failure)
Definition 2.14 (Failure mode)
Example 2.6 (Pump failure modes)
Definition 2.15 (Failure cause)
Definition 2.16 (Failure mechanism)
2.3.8.1 Failure Classification
Example 2.7 (Cruise ship near accident)
2.3.9 Terminology Comments
2.3.10 Accident
Definition 2.17 (Accident)
Example 2.8 (Helicopter accidents)
2.3.11 Incident
Definition 2.18 (Incident)
2.3.12 Precursors
Definition 2.19 (Precursors)
2.3.13 Special Types of Accidents
Definition 2.20 (Organizational accident)
Definition 2.21 (Individual accident)
Definition 2.22 (System accident)
Definition 2.23 (Component failure accident)
2.4 What is the Likelihood?
2.4.1 Probability
2.4.1.1 Classical Approach
2.4.1.2 Frequentist Approach
2.4.1.3 Bayesian Approach
Definition 2.24 (Subjective probability)
Example 2.9 (Your subjective probability)
Definition 2.25 (Prior probability)
Thomas Bayes
Definition 2.26 (Posterior probability)
2.4.1.4 Likelihood
Remark 2.5 (The term likelihood)
2.4.2 Controversy
Remark 2.6 (Objective or subjective?)
2.4.3 Frequency
2.5 What are the Consequences?
Definition 2.27 (Harm/consequence)
2.5.1 Assets
Definition 2.28 (Asset)
2.5.2 Categories of Human Victims
Example 2.10 (Victims of Railway Accidents)
2.5.3 Consequence Categories
2.5.4 Consequence Spectrum
2.5.5 Time of Recording Consequences
2.5.6 Severity
Definition 2.29 (Severity)
2.6 Additional Terms
2.6.1 Barriers
Definition 2.30 (Barrier)
2.6.2 Safety
Definition 2.31
(Safety)
2.6.3 Safety Performance
Definition 2.32 (Safety performance)
Remark 2.7 (Was the risk analysis wrong?)
2.6.4 Security
Definition 2.33
(Security)
Definition 2.34 (Threat)
Remark 2.8 (Natural threat)
Definition 2.35 (Threat actor)
Definition 2.36 (Vulnerability)
2.6.4.1 An Illustration
2.6.5 Resilience
Definition 2.37 (Resilience)
2.7 Problems
References
Notes
Chapter 3 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 3.1 Introduction
Definition 3.1
(Risk analysis)
Definition 3.2 (Risk assessment)
3.1.1 The Role of the Risk Analyst
Remark 3.1 (Terminology)
3.2 Risk Assessment Process
3.2.1 Step 1: Plan the Risk Assessment
3.2.1.1 Step 1.1: Clarify Decision and Decision Criteria
Example 3.1 (Decision criteria)
3.2.1.2 Step 1.2: Define Outputs from Risk Assessment
3.2.1.3 Step 1.3: Define Objectives and Scope
3.2.1.4 Step 1.4: Establish the Study Team and Organize the Work
3.2.1.5 Step 1.5: Establish Project Plan
3.2.1.6 Step 1.6: Identify and Provide Background Information
3.2.2 Step 2: Define the Study
3.2.2.1 Step 2.1: Define and Delimit the Study Object
3.2.2.2 Step 2.2: Provide Documentation and Drawings
3.2.2.3 Step 2.3: Familiarization
3.2.2.4 Step 2.4: Select Method
3.2.2.5 Step 2.5: Select Data
3.2.2.6 Step 2.6: Identify Relevant Assets
3.2.3 Step 3: Identify Hazards and Initiating Events
3.2.3.1 Step 3.1: Identify and List Generic Hazards and Events
3.2.3.2 Step 3.2: Define Specific and Representative Events
3.2.3.3 Step 3.3: Identify Causes of Events
3.2.3.4 Step 3.4: Determine Frequencies of Events
3.2.4 Step 4: Develop Accident Scenarios and Describe Consequences
3.2.4.1 Step 4.1: Identify Barriers and Other Factors Influencing the Scenarios
3.2.4.2 Step 4.2: Describe Representative Scenarios
3.2.4.3 Step 4.3: Describe End Events
3.2.4.4 Step 4.4: Describe Consequences
3.2.4.5 Step 4.5: Determine Frequency of End Events
3.2.4.6 Step 4.6: Quantify the Consequences
3.2.5 Step 5: Determine and Assess the Risk
3.2.5.1 Step 5.1: Summarize the Results
3.2.5.2 Step 5.2: Assess Uncertainty
3.2.5.3 Step 5.3: Evaluate the Risk
Definition 3.3 (Risk evaluation)
3.2.5.4 Step 5.4: Identify Risk Reduction Measures
3.2.5.5 Step 5.5: Determine Risk Reduction Effect
3.2.5.6 Step 5.6: Determine Cost of Risk Reduction Measures
3.2.6 Step 6: Risk Presentation
3.2.6.1 Step 6.1: Prepare Report
3.2.6.2 Step 6.2: Present Results
3.3 Risk Assessment Report
3.3.1 Contents of the Report
3.3.1.1 Title Page
3.3.1.2 Disclaimer
3.3.1.3 Executive Summary
3.3.1.4 Document References
3.3.1.5 Acronyms and Glossary
3.3.1.6 Study Team
3.3.1.7 Introduction
3.3.1.8 Description of the Study Object
3.3.1.9 Analysis Approach
3.3.1.10 Risk Acceptance Criteria
3.3.1.11 Hazards and Hazardous Events
3.3.1.12 Models
3.3.1.13 Data and Data Sources
3.3.1.14 Frequency and Consequence Analysis
3.3.1.15 Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessments
3.3.1.16 Identification and Assessment of Risk Reduction Measures
3.3.1.17 Discussions of Results
3.3.1.18 Conclusions and Recommendations
3.3.1.19 Appendices
3.3.1.20 General Comments
3.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation
3.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment
3.6 Problems
References
Note
Chapter 4 Study Object and Limitations 4.1 Introduction
4.2 Study Object
4.2.1 System
Definition 4.1 (System)
4.2.2 Sociotechnical System
Definition 4.2 (Sociotechnical system)
Remark 4.1 (Sociotechnical systems treated as technical systems)
4.2.3 Deterministic Versus Non‐Deterministic System
Definition 4.3 (Deterministic system)
4.2.4 System Breakdown Structure
4.2.5 System Boundary
Definition 4.4 (System boundary)
4.2.6 Assumptions
4.2.7 Closed and Open Systems
Definition 4.5 (Closed system)
Definition 4.6 (Open system)
4.3 Operating Context
Definition 4.7 (Operating context)
Example 4.1
(Operating context for a washing machine)
Example 4.2 (Operating context for a passenger ship)
4.4 System Modeling and Analysis
Definition 4.8 (Model)
4.4.1 Component Modeling
4.4.2 System Modeling
4.4.2.1 The Newtonian–Cartesian Paradigm
4.4.3 System Analysis and Synthesis
Definition 4.9 (System analysis)
Definition 4.10 (Synthesis)
4.5 Complexity
Definition 4.11 (Complexity)
4.5.1 Emergent Properties
Definition 4.12 (Emergent property)
4.6 Problems
References
Notes
Chapter 5 Risk Acceptance 5.1 Introduction
5.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria
Definition 5.1 (Risk acceptance criteria, RAC)
Definition 5.2 (Acceptable risk)
Example 5.1 (Choosing the option with highest risk)
Example 5.2
(RAC for nuclear power plants)
Example 5.3 (RAC for offshore oil and gas installations)
5.2.1 Acceptable and Tolerable Risk
Definition 5.3 (Acceptable risk level)
5.2.2 Value of Life
5.2.2.1 Value of a Statistical Life
Alternative Concepts
5.2.3 Equity, Utility, and Technology
5.2.3.1 Equity Principle
5.2.3.2 Utility Principle
5.2.3.3 Technology Principle
5.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria
5.3.1 The ALARP Principle
5.3.1.1 Cost–Benefit Assessment
Remark 5.1 (SFAIRP)
5.3.2 The ALARA Principle
5.3.3 The GAMAB Principle
5.3.4 The MEM Principle
5.3.5 Societal Risk Criteria
5.3.6 The Precautionary Principle
Definition 5.4 (Precautionary principle)
Example 5.4 (Deliberate release into the environment of GMOs)
5.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans
5.5 Closure
5.6 Problems
References
Note
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