Читать книгу Risk Assessment - Marvin Rausand - Страница 115

Observe that the occurrence of events and accidents is – at least partly – a random process. If the risk in the coming period is estimated to be rather high, and by the end of that period, we find that the safety performance in the period showed no accidents, this does not necessarily mean that the risk analysis was wrong. The same argument can also be used the other way around. In particular for major accident risk, it can be claimed that risk analyses are hardly ever wrong (although they may not always be right)!