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Thomas Bayes (1702–1761) was a British Presbyterian minister who has become famous for formulating the formula that bears his name – Bayes' formula (often written as Bayes formula). His derivation was published (posthumously) in 1763 in the paper “An essay toward solving a problem in the doctrine of chances” (Bayes 1763). The general version of the formula was developed in 1774 by the French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749–1825).