Читать книгу Supertiming: The Unique Elliott Wave System - Robert C. Beckman - Страница 17

Probably the best way to gain a perspective of the time frame relationships is the classification of waves that appeared in the April 1974 issue of Accountancy Magazine, the Journal of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.

“Elliott’s actual classification of the various waves by degree in order of decreasing magnitude – designed to cover everything from the smallest imaginable wave formation involving the hourly moves in the index, for a formation lasting 200 years or more – were as follows:

 Grand super cycle. This was designed to cover the longest possible measurable time period. As of our current historical records, we have no concrete evidence of the completion of a grand super cycle, since Elliott’s records only go back to the mid-1800s. According to Elliott, Wave I of a grand super cycle began in 1800 and ran to 1850, Wave II from 1850-1857, Wave III from 1857-1928, Wave IV from 1929-1949, and according to the principle, we remain in Wave V of a grand super cycle, which could stretch for several years more. Obviously, the risks are far greater for investors now than they were when we were at the early stages of the grand super cycle, such as the beginning of Wave III or even the beginning of Wave V.

 Super cycle. This is the next lower degree. Elliott claims that a super cycle of five waves began in 1857 (Wave III of a grand super cycle), following the depression of the 1850s. The five waves were completed in 1929. There then followed a corrective super cycle, running from 1929 until 1949. In 1949, a new super cycle began. We have completed four waves of the particular cycle with Wave V of a grand super cycle.

 Cycle. The wave pattern of the next lesser degree to the super cycle is that of the cycle. A breakdown of the 1857-1929 super cycle to cycle dimensions would give us the upmove from 1857-1864, the downmove of 1864-1877, the upmove from 1877-1881, the downmove from 1881-1896 and the upmove from 1896-1919.

 Primary. The period from 1896 to 1929 represents Cycle Wave 5 of the super cycle. If we break this cycle wave down to its primary wave components, we find an upthrust from 1896-1899, a downthrust from 1899-1907, an upthrust from 1907-1909, the downthrust from 1909-1921 and the big upthrust from 1921-1929.

 Intermediate. The intermediate waves of the long and glorious bull market that stretched for eight years from 1921-1929 can be subdivided into the upwave from 1921-1923, the downwave from 1923-1924, the upwave from 1924-1925, the downwave from 1925-1926 and the massive three-year upthrust that sent share prices soaring until they finally toppled over, from 1926-1929.

 Minor. By this time, readers may be somewhat suspicious of the historical data used as examples, doubting the application of the Wave Principle to the current environment. If we examine the upwave in the FT30 which began in February 1971 and ended in May 1972, we find the same five-wave pattern in repetition once again. Minor Wave I began in February 1971 and was terminated in May 1971. Downwave 2 began in May 1971, ending in mid-June 1971. Minor upwave 3 began in mid-June 1971, ending in September 1971. Minor downwave 4 began in September 1971 and was completed in November 1971. The longest wave, which is practically always Wave 5, began in November 1971 and was completed in May 1972.

 Minute. As can be seen, the minor waves will usually encompass the monthly movements of share prices, while the minute waves are likely to relate to the weekly movement in share prices. If we examine Minor Wave 5 of the move from November 1971 through May 1972, we find a Minute Wave 1 running upwards from mid-November to mid-January for a total of seven weeks. This is followed by a Minute Downwave 2 running down from mid-January to mid-February for four weeks. Minute Wave 3 starts in mid-February and runs until late February for two weeks. Minute Wave 4 runs downward from late February to early March for three weeks. Minute Wave 5 runs upward from early March until mid-May for eight weeks.

 Minuette. If we now take the period representing the last eight weeks of the February 1971-May 1972 bull move, this period representing Minute Wave 5 of Minor Wave 5 of Intermediate Wave V, of Primary Wave V of Cycle Wave III, etc, we can break the pattern down into its minuette components, which show the daily movements. Minuette Wave 1 began on 10 March at FT30 495.1 and ran for 12 days, reaching FT30 520 on 22 March. Minuette Wave 2 began on 22 March and ran for two days, bringing the FT30 down to 503.1. Wave 3 began on 27 March, running for 30 days, taking the FT30 up to 540.3. Minuette Wave 4 then acted in a corrective fashion for nine days, taking the FT30 back down to 419.6. The final Minuette Wave 5 lasted 12 days until the top at 545.6 was reached on 22 May 1972.

 Sub-minuette. The sub-minuette waves comprising the last 12 trading sessions in the final stages of the bull move of May 1972 reveal a Sub-Minuette Wave 1 lasting 12 hours, Sub-Minuette Wave II lasting five hours, Sub-Minuette Wave III eight hours, Sub-Minuette Wave IV six hours; the final burst of the Sub-Minuette Wave V was 19 hours long.

One can readily begin to see how Elliott’s method completely supersedes most other forms of pattern categorisation of share price movements and, to say the least, clearly demonstrates the obsolescence of the over-simplified bull market-bear market fixation, which tries to establish a constantly recurring periodicity of bull and bear market cycles into two and three-year repetitions. The randomness of the time relationship in classification amply demonstrates this point. For all practical purposes, we have in the Wave Principle the ultimate work-a-day series of stock market sequences.”