Читать книгу Supertiming: The Unique Elliott Wave System - Robert C. Beckman - Страница 24

One should now note the strict departure from the ludicrous practice of most “chartists” who insist on predicting absolute levels in the D.J.30. I would state quite emphatically, that such predictions are utterly useless and totally beyond the realm of any reasonable probability. During our excursion with Elliott we will be using expressions such as the “maximum probable extent” of a particular move, or the “minimum expectation” of a move. When we say, the “minimum expectation” of the corrective wave is D.J.30 848, as above, we are in no way suggesting that the market will end up there. “Minimum expectation” means precisely that. The D.J.30 may end its correction at that point, but it could conceivably move downward much further. To those seeking the absolute, this may not be a satisfactory approach. I am confident those who seek such an absolute will never find a satisfactory approach nor will they ever achieve any degree of success in the stock market other than that which can be accomplished by selling pieces of paper with irrelevant predictions to investors.

The strategic aspect of dealing with factors which establish minimum and maximum probabilities, is that one never acts in a fashion counter to the risk factor. In the aforementioned example it would be totally imprudent even to consider a buying programme until such time as the market reaches its minimum objective. Likewise it would be imprudent to consider instigating a selling programme until the market had achieved a level close to its maximum objective; i.e. in the aforementioned case, the completion of Wave 5.

Many will now wonder why I have chosen to use such small hypothetical movements in the D.J.30 for my demonstration. I could have proposed that the hypothetical movement of Wave 1 in Figure 4 was say 70 points or so. I could have assigned movements of 110 points or so to Wave 3. The “corrective waves” 2 and 4 could have been proposed as downward moves of 30 and 40 points respectively. But the choice of sub-minute movements was quite intentional. I have attempted to present a situation which could be put into immediate practice, representing the smallest feasible amplitude which would be commensurate to what may develop as one watches the hourly action of the stock market.