Читать книгу Applied Mergers and Acquisitions - Robert F. Bruner - Страница 110

The extensive research on foreign direct investment and on investor reaction to announcements of cross-border acquisitions underscores how important it is for the practitioner to have a view about a country in which an acquisition is contemplated. Such a view would inform the analysis of deals with insights about:

 Expected economic growth in the country and region. Exhibit 5.10 depicts the development curve of a country over time, commonly used by economists to convey the evolutionary process by which a country achieves developed status. The country progresses from entrepôt (distribution center), through stages of rising value-added manufacturing, to highly integrated operations. In seeking to gauge the attractiveness of a country market, the M&A analyst can use a framework such as the path of development to assess the current status and future outlook for a country.

 Foundations of special competitive advantage stemming from unique resources or capabilities. Porter (1990) highlighted the role of clusters of competition within countries that creates capabilities.

 Outlook for inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.

 Relative valuation of assets.EXHIBIT 5.10 The Curve of Country Development

  Risks. Expectations about any of these elements are never certain. Country analysis should identify the sources of uncertainty and the size of their influence. A quick assessment of the risk in a country might be derived from its sovereign debt risk rating.

Most government issues are rated for default risk by major rating agencies. These form important assumptions that will underpin the cross-border deal evaluation outlined in Chapter 13. Four perspectives inform one’s view: macroeconomic, microeconomic, institutional, and cultural.