Читать книгу Applied Mergers and Acquisitions - Robert F. Bruner - Страница 111

In the long run, national economic results are materially influenced by government policies in six areas:

1 Fiscal policy. This addresses the volume and priorities of government spending, as well as the means of financing that spending through taxes or the issuance of debt. Fiscal policy affects monetary, exchange rate, and employment policies. The key points of focus for an analyst are government surpluses or deficits, spending priorities, tax rates, and government indebtedness.

2 Monetary policy. Management of the national money supply through central bank and government activities is a major influence on inflation rates, interest rates, and currency exchange rates. Monetary policy affects fiscal policy, exchange rate policy, employment, and trade. Key points of focus for the analyst are interest rate levels and trends, inflation rates, the velocity of money, and government interventions that seek to influence these (e.g., open market transactions, bank reserve requirements, and discount window transactions).

3 Exchange rate policy. Governments may choose among a variety of alternatives from letting the national currency float against other currencies to fixing the rate of exchange (in terms of a commodity such as gold or other currencies). Exchange rates are closely linked to flows of capital and the national balance of payments. Exchange rate policy affects monetary, fiscal, trade, and employment policies. Key points of focus for the analyst are the trend and level of exchange rates, trade balances and capital flows (which indicate the relative supply and demand for the local currency), interventions in currency markets by the government or by supranational organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

4 Intervention policy. Economies that are tightly centrally controlled by governments may be slow to adapt to innovations and changes in market conditions. On the other hand, intervention may dampen swings in economic activity. Governments intervene in business markets through industry regulations, state ownership of enterprises, the judicial system, and oversight of financial institutions. Key points of analysis are the severity of government regulations, the existence of centralized regulatory boards, policies on privatization or nationalization, the use of government subsidies to support private enterprise, the history of expropriation, and generally the development priorities indicated through government action in these areas.

5 Trade policy. Government policy can range from strong protectionism (through tariffs and other barriers) to free trade. Barriers may shelter the development of “national champions,” but they restrict the inbound flow of goods and services to consumers in the country. In contrast, the theory of comparative advantage suggests that national welfare is maximized when goods trade freely across borders. Trade policy affects fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. Key points of analysis are the size and distribution of tariffs across imported goods and services and the trend of flows of imports and exports.

6 Employment and welfare policy. Many countries seek to manage unemployment and stimulate the creation of jobs as the flip side of providing a social safety net of welfare and health care payments. Employment and welfare policy affect fiscal policy. The focus of analysis should be the trend and size of the unemployment rate, trend and size of social welfare payments in the economy, existence of labor unions, and laws and policies that affect union activity.