Читать книгу The Harriman Book Of Investing Rules - Stephen Eckett - Страница 6

David Andrea

David Andrea is Director of the Forecasting Group at the Center for Automotive Research within the Environment Research Institute of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. His group focuses on forecasting the business operating environment (market demand, regulatory requirements, product technology) and associated risks to existing business models, invested capital base, and company technology portfolios.

The auto sector

1. Invest with the leading economic indicators.

Industry profitability and cash flow all begin and end with vehicle sales. These sales are inversely correlated with unemployment and consumer lending rates, and are directly correlated with income levels and stock market performance. As sales slow, inventories build and manufacturers are attracted to margin (and brand) destroying incentives to push vehicles off the lots and maintain production schedules. Margin reductions lead to delayed new vehicle programmes and component price reduction programmes to suppliers.

2. Invest as a utility model.

Before deregulation, utilities were judged by their cash flows and dividend streams. Autos are still heavily regulated and, like utilities, have few substitutions. The manufacturers and the largest mechanical component suppliers offer significant dividend yield opportunities. Granted, the dividend streams are always at risk to the production cycle - however, 4% to 6% yields offered by these companies position them well for an income instrument in diversified portfolios. But you should continually question the quality of earnings supporting the dividend stream - as one seasoned analyst taught me: “buy on the dividend increases, sell on the dividend cuts”.

3. Invest in value stories.

It is not uncommon to see quality balance sheets and management teams selling at a 60% to 80% discount (P/E basis) to the overall market. However, these are not ‘dresser drawer’ stocks. Look to buy when the discount is high, and target an exit when the discount has fallen into the 20% to 40% range. Based on perceived business cycle risk, it is the rare auto stock that trades consistently with the overall market.

4. Invest in growth stories.

The industry offers opportunities to invest in stories of growth via increased content per vehicle produced. Look for electronics (which may or may not be automotive pure-plays) and new technologies (providing solutions to emissions, safety, and fuel economy concerns as well as improved consumer value). Combined with an overall improvement in the margins of booked business, increasing content per vehicle provides a growth opportunity in a mature industry.

5. Invest in forward product.

A hot coupe’s half-life is approximately 12 to 16 months. A supplier’s profitability is easily tied into a single hot vehicle segment. One informational advantage of the auto industry is that product development cycles are 2 to 4 years in length. This gives investors the ability to analyse manufacturer strategies and suppliers’ forward book of business.

Look for manufacturers exploiting hot segments with new models and defending current market share with fresh styling, innovation, and value pricing. For suppliers, invest in a book of business that is migrating towards high vehicle content growth (electronics), and value-added (complete systems or modules).

6. Invest in cash flow.

While the production cycles may have become less cyclical, the financial fortunes of vehicle manufacturers and suppliers swing dramatically once capacity utilizations fall below 85%. That’s 85% utilization of an assembly plant or component facility. This is particularly true for capital-intensive suppliers such as forgers and casters whose cash flows move radically around production schedules.

7. Invest in experience.

Corporate performance from core competencies comes only through deep experience. It takes a special understanding of the complexities of engineering and assembly plant launches to successfully run a vehicle manufacturer. Suppliers typically are best in serving the original equipment market or the aftermarket - not both at the same time. And always be sceptical of any manufacturer strategy that involves moving into retail. Manufacturing and retailing (at least in the auto sector) require two different mindsets.

8. Invest in the best cost structure

Due to the cyclicality of auto production, invest in the vehicle manufacturers with the best cost structure. Higher margins going into downturns provide flexibility in pricing and capital spending that will maintain a manufacturer’s long-term competitiveness. Vehicle manufacturers will always keep three or four suppliers competing for the business to maintain price discipline. Therefore, the supplier with a track record of improving its cost structure will typically offer a longer-term advantage.

9. Invest in established trends.

Year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons are difficult due to the cyclicality of sales, the seasonality of sales within a year, and the common occurrence of extraordinary events (delayed product launches, labor disputes, and weather disruptions). Therefore, always question the base date when you see significant increases or decreases in operating performance ratios.

10. Invest in liquidity and visibility.

Because of the industry’s volume, ‘small’ suppliers can still have revenue levels of $300 to $500 million. However, many of these companies have limited float and few research analysts following the story. Always take into consideration family and management-owned shares that are unlikely to trade. It is unlikely that institutional investors are drawn to these limited float companies and typically it is the institutional money that pushes demand and share price increases.

‘Market sectors vary in how quickly they respond to information. Large cap U.S. stocks, for example, are followed by so many analysts and reflect company fundamentals so quickly, that it is nearly impossible to add value through active strategies. I recommend indexing such sectors.’

Ben Warwick