Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 69

	Bull Market
Performance rank	1 (best) out of 5
Breakeven failure rate	10.2%
Average rise	44.3%
Volume trend	Downward
Point D reversal rate	91%
See also	Big M, double tops, bullish AB=CD, bullish crab, bullish butterfly, and bullish Gartley

The bullish bat is a Big M chart pattern except that Fibonacci ratios determine the turning points. I don't show bear market statistics in this chapter because I found just 53 patterns. That's too few to be worth discussing, especially when sorted into different categories.

I found 259 bullish bats in the data I searched. That's too few to be comfortable drawing conclusions, but let's live dangerously, shall we?

I measured performance of Fibonacci‐based patterns differently than I do other chart pattern types. That's because we're looking for a reversal at the end of the pattern and not an up or down breakout. Therefore, the layout of this chapter is different from most other chapters in this book.

The Results Snapshot (previous page) shows the average rise from the low at turn D is 44.3%, which is quite good. That beats the 42.4% average gain for non‐Fibonacci‐based patterns. Failures, at about 10% of patterns, are also quite good. They are well below the 15.3% failure rate for non‐Fibonacci patterns.

Swing traders will want to buy long at turn D. Price turns upward at D 91% of the time in the bats I looked at. That's sensational. It's a headline performance.

The performance rank, which is based on the average rise from point D when compared to other Fibonacci patterns, is first out of five. It's the best performing Fibonacci pattern. The performance rank of bear market patterns (not shown) is also first (best), out of five contenders.