Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 72

Figure 5.3 shows a bullish bat that fails to be bullish. I show the five turns at XABCD. It's a valid bullish bat even though it looks weird. Price at D should see the stock turn higher, but it doesn't. It does form a minor low, but that doesn't translate into any meaningful rebound in the stock.

Instead of turning upward at D, the stock continues lower, breaking out downward at E. Price continuing lower at D (instead of turning upward) is the first type of failure.

The second type of failure is when price does turn upward at D, but doesn't climb far. I consider a move no more than 5% to be a failure. Figure 5.3 shows this type of failure, too, because price climbs just 3% after D.

Five percent failures only happen about 10% of the time, so they are a concern, but not a huge one.

Let's talk about statistics next.

Figure 5.3 This bullish bat isn't bullish at all. Price fails to turn higher at D and breaks out downward from the pattern.

Table 5.2 General Statistics

Description	Bull Market
Number found	259
Breakeven failure rate	10.2%
Average rise after D	44.3%
Volume trend	80% Downward
Performance Up/Down volume	35%U, 47%D