Читать книгу Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski - Страница 73

Table 5.2 shows a few general statistics for the bullish bat.

Number found. This complicated pattern is rare, but it could be the result of the way I programmed my computer to find them. I unearthed bats (in both bull and bear markets) in only 260 stocks despite searching over 1,300 stocks. Patterns found in the stocks stretched from July 1991 to April 2019. There were so few patterns that I limited the presentation to bull markets only, as I mentioned.

Breakeven failure rate. The breakeven failure rate is a measure of how often patterns fail to rise more than 5% (as measured from the low at D). With such a high average rise (44.3%), you might expect to see a low failure rate. Indeed, that's what the pattern shows, at 10.2%.

Average rise after D. The average rise measures from the low at point D. The 44.3% rate compares favorably to the 42.4% average rise from non‐Fibonacci‐based patterns.

Volume trend, performance. Volume trends lower 80% of the time as measured from the start of the pattern to the end using linear regression. Performance is best if the trend is downward (with rises averaging 47%!).

However, don't let the wide difference (35% and 47%) between the two values fool you. I found just 27 samples with upward volume trends, which is probably why the 35% gain is so tiny. The difference between the two values will shrink with more samples.