Читать книгу Analytics for Insurance - Tony Boobier - Страница 12

Next generation analytics is likely to be ‘cognitive’ in nature, not only providing probabilistic insight based on some degree of machine learning but also with a more natural human interface (as opposed to requiring machine coding). Cognitive analytics is not ‘artificial intelligence’ or ‘AI’ out of the mold of HAL in Kubrick's ‘2001 – A Space Odyssey’ but rather represents a different relationship between the computer and the user. We are already on that journey as evidenced by Siri, Cortana and Watson. Speculators are already beginning to describe ‘cognitive’ analytics as ‘soft AI.’ This is a trend which is likely to continue as a panacea to the enormous volumes of data which appears to be growing exponentially and the need for enhanced computer assistance to help sort it. Cognitive analytics may also have a part to play in the insurance challenges of skill shortages and the so-called demographic explosion.

Forms of cognitive computing are already being used in healthcare and asset management and it is only a matter of time before it finds its way into mainstream insurance activities.

Coupled with this is the likely emergence of contextual analytics. Insurance organizations will become increasingly good at knowing and optimizing their own performance. Unless consideration is given to what is happening outside their own organization, for example amongst their competitors, then these viewpoints are being made in a vacuum. The American scientist Alan Kay expressed it succinctly in these words: ‘Context is worth 80 IQ points.’

In the cold light of day, there are two key objectives which need to be adopted by insurers: Firstly, to outperform direct competitors, and secondly, to achieve strategic objectives. To do one and not the other is a job only partly completed. Often but not always the two key objectives go hand in hand.

Outperformance of competitors by insurers may be measured in varying forms:

■ Finance performance – profit, revenue, profitable growth.

■ Customers – retention, sentiment, propensity to buy more products.

■ Service – both direct and through third parties such as loss adjusters who are considered, by extension, as part of the insurer themselves.

■ Staff – retention, sentiment.

These issues need to be considered in the context of the wider environment, for example the macro-economy or the risk environment. In a time of austerity or where there is rapid growth in the cost of living, individual families may choose to spend more on food than on insurance products. At a time when the agenda of insurers has been dominated by risks associated with capital and solvency, perhaps their eyes have been temporarily taken off the ball in terms of other risks such as underwriting risk, reputational risk and political risk but that position is relatively easily and quickly remedied.