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In addition to the foregoing variables, the variable of the rate of urban unemployment and the variable of return on capital are also taken into account because they may affect the rate of the transfer of labor by affecting the demand for labor in the urban sector. In the regression analysis, the former is measured by the changes in the rate of urban unemployment and the latter is measured by the ratio of the total profit of industrial enterprises to the net value of fixed assets of industrial enterprises. In the benchmark regression, the rate of urban unemployment is measured by the rate of registered urban unemployment. Because of statistical problems, the indicator of the rate of registered urban unemployment cannot reflect the unemployment rate of China’s urban sectors well. The more ideal measurement indicator is the rate of surveyed urban unemployment. However, the National Bureau of Statistics does not fully disclose the data regarding the rate of surveyed urban unemployment, and only microdata from the urban household surveys in some provinces are made available. Through the calculation of the microdata from the survey on urban households, it is possible to obtain the estimated data regarding the surveyed urban unemployment rate in the nine provinces from 1992 to 2009. Therefore, the surveyed urban unemployment rate is used to facilitate the regression analysis (the results show no significant difference, as reported in Exhibit B of Appendix B).

To eliminate the possible impacts caused by price changes, the data for the nominal variable have been adjusted based on the CPI of various provinces and regions in 2000, such as per capita public education expenditure. In addition, the impact of inflation is controlled. The statistics of the above variables are reported in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1. Statistics of Regression Variables of the Driving Factors of the Transfer of Agricultural Labor.

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, statistical yearbooks of various provinces and regions, traffic yearbooks of various provinces and regions, official website of the provincial department of transportation, Compilation of Statistical Data of 60 Years in New China, Compilation of Agricultural Statistics Data of 60 Years in New China and CEIC Database; the rate of surveyed urban unemployment has been estimated using the microdata from urban household surveys. The sample interval of each variable is from 1992 to 2010, and the sample interval of the communications infrastructure is from 1998 to 2010. Due to the missing data of some observations in individual provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, the number of observations of each variable was not completely equal.