Читать книгу Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage - Yiping Huang - Страница 12

Implementing this strategy would greatly increase the likelihood of sustained growth and reaching high-income status before 2030. Scenario analysis shows the PRC has the potential to grow 8% annually from 2010 to 2020 and 6% from 2020 to 2030—if it addresses its challenges effectively. Under this scenario, real GDP per capita in 2010 constant prices would reach $16,500 in 2030. And—like several of its East Asia neighbors—the PRC would complete the transition from a low-income to a high-income country in less than 30 years. It will become the world’s largest economy by the mid-2020s at market exchange rates.