Читать книгу Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage - Yiping Huang - Страница 5

The Chinese economy is not easy to decipher, with its complex mix of market activity and government control, developed coastal cities and backward interior areas, world class technology in some industries and lower level productivity in many others. This mix is no doubt due to the fact that the economy continues to undergo a rapid transformation from traditional to modern, from rural to urban, from plan to market, and from domestic to global.

As challenging as it is to understand the current economy, even more challenging—and interesting—is the nature of the Chinese growth process. In the research for this report, we sought to understand the basis for the past success of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and then questioned whether the same factors will continue to be the basis for success in the years and decades ahead. Past success in the PRC has been due to a confluence of factors, including a low-cost advantage especially in labor that has fueled exports and domestic as well as foreign investment. However, this cost advantage is eroding and is likely to contribute much less to competitiveness in the future. Instead, to sustain growth through and beyond the (upper) middle-income phase, the PRC will need to rely more on productivity improvements through innovation and upgrading. The transition “from low cost to high value” is a key imperative for the economy.

What makes this transition particularly challenging is the fact that the PRC’s reform process is still far from complete, and, compounded by rapid growth in the past 3 decades, this has generated significant economic imbalances, coupled with rising inequality. These deep issues are becoming more apparent and could stifle economic progress in the years ahead. The Chinese growth machine has also created pressures on energy, water resources and the environment that require attention.

We have attempted to weave these various factors, trends and issues into what we hope is a compelling look at the PRC and its prospects for the future.

Juzhong Zhuang

Deputy Chief Economist, Economics and Research Department, ADB

Paul Vandenberg

Senior Economist, Economics and Research Department, ADB

Yiping Huang

Professor, China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, PRC