Читать книгу Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage - Yiping Huang - Страница 4

Some 20 years ago, we began referring to the rapid development of a small group of economies as the “Asian miracle.” What these economies had in common were not only very high rates of sustained growth, but underpinning that growth, rapid increases in labor productivity and the import, adoption, use and development of technologically sophisticated processes for generating high-value goods and services. These economies—Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China—moved to global standards and did so while maintaining macroeconomic, political and social stability, and generating decent, higher wage employment for their people. In contrast, in Latin America the experience since the 1970s has been very different. Macroeconomic, fiscal and financial imbalances, combined with high inequality, significantly constrained innovation, growth, and improvements in social welfare. Many economies in that region have remained in the middle-income stage of development for decades and have become mired in what is now commonly known as “the middle-income trap.”

The economic progress of the Chinese economy since the reform process began in the late 1970s can no doubt also be labeled a “miracle.” Three decades of 10% annual growth is a miracle by any definition. We might also say, however, that it is a miracle-in-progress. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) remains a middle-income country, its productivity gaps with advanced countries remain wide, and technological capabilities are evolving. In addition, the pattern of development has generated significant imbalances, along with high inequality. How the PRC can continue its robust growth, resolve these problems, and avoid the middle-income trap of slowing technological progress, amid rising wages, is the central question that this timely study seeks to address.

This report is the result of close collaboration between the Economics and Research Department of the Asian Development Bank and the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University. Bringing the expertise from the two organizations together, along with other experts at institutions in the PRC and globally, has generated much interesting and thought-provoking analysis. It has resulted in this concise, distilled synthesis report of research, thinking and ideas about the challenges facing the PRC and policy options it may consider. It is my hope that the issues raised and policy options proposed will stimulate further debate and promote policy innovations that can assist the PRC in charting a course for further progress now and in the years ahead.

Changyong Rhee

Chief Economist

Asian Development Bank