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1.3 Controversy on the use of Partial Data
ОглавлениеIn 1895, the Norwegian Anders Nicolai Kiær, Director of the Central Statistical Office of Norway, presented to the Congress of the International Statistical Institute of Statistics (ISI) in Bern a work entitled Observations et expériences concernant des dénombrements représentatifs (Observations and experiments on representative enumeration) for a survey conducted in Norway. Kiær (1896) first selected a sample of cities and municipalities. Then, in each of these municipalities, he selected only some individuals using the first letter of their surnames. He applied a two‐stage design, but the choice of the units was not random. Kiær argues for the use of partial data if it is produced using a “representative method”. According to this method, the sample must be a representation with a reduced size of the population. Kiær's concept of representativeness is linked to the quota method. His speech was followed by a heated debate, and the proceedings of the Congress of the ISI reflect a long dispute. Let us take a closer look at the arguments from two opponents of Kiær's method (see ISI General Assembly Minutes, 1896).
Georg von Mayr (Prussia)[] It is especially dangerous to call for this system of representative investigations within an assembly of statisticians. It is understandable that for legislative or administrative purposes such limited enumeration may be useful – but then it must be remembered that it can never replace complete statistical observation. It is all the more necessary to support this point, that there is among us in these days a current among mathematicians who, in many directions, would rather calculate than observe. But we must remain firm and say: no calculation where observation can be done.4
Guillaume Milliet (Switzerland). I believe that it is not right to give a congressional voice to the representative method(which can only be an expedient) an importance that serious statistics will never recognize. No doubt, statistics made with this method, or, as I might call it, statistics, pars pro toto, has given us here and there interesting information; but its principle is so much in contradiction with the demands of the statistical method that as statisticians, we should not grant to imperfect things the same right of bourgeoisie, so to speak, that we accord to the ideal that scientifically we propose to reach.5
The content of these reactions can again be summarized as follows: since statistics is by definition exhaustive, renouncing complete enumeration denies the very mission of statistical science. The discussion does not concern the method proposed by Kiaer, but is on the definition of statistical science. However, Kiaer did not let go, and continued to defend the representative method in 1897 at the congress of the ISI at St. Petersburg (see Kiær, 1899), in 1901 in Budapest, and in 1903 in Berlin (see Kiær, 1903, 1905). After this date, the issue is no longer mentioned at the ISI Congress. However, Kiær obtained the support of Arthur Bowley (1869–1957), who then played a decisive role in the development of sampling theory. Bowley (1906) presented an empirical verification of the application of the central limit theorem to sampling. He was the true promoter of random sampling techniques, developed stratified designs with proportional allocations, and used the law of total variance. It will be necessary to wait for the end of the First World War and the emergence of a new generation of statisticians for the problem to be rediscussed within the ISI. On this subject, we cannot help but quote Max Plank's reflection on the appearance of new scientific truths: “a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it” (quoted by Kuhn, 1970, p. 151).
In 1924, a commission (composed of Arthur Bowley, Corrado Gini, Adolphe Jensen, Lucien March, Verrijn Stuart, and Frantz Zizek) was created to evaluate the relevance of using the representative method. The results of this commission, entitled “Report on the representative method of statistics”, were presented at the 1925 ISI Congress in Rome. The commission accepted the principle of survey sampling as long as the methodology is respected. Thirty years after Kiær's communication, the idea of sampling was officially accepted. The commission laid the foundation for future research. Two methods are clearly distinguished: “random selection” and “purposive selection”. These two methods correspond to two fundamentally different scientific approaches. On the one hand, the validation of random methods is based on the calculation of probabilities that allows confidence intervals to be build for certain parameters. On the other hand, the validation of the purposive selection method can only be obtained through experimentation by comparing the obtained estimations to census results. Therefore, random methods are validated by a strictly mathematical argument while purposive methods are validated by an experimental approach.