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1.5 The US Elections of 1936
ОглавлениеDuring the same period, the implementation of the quota method contributed much more to the development of the use of survey sampling methods than theoretical studies. The 1936 US election marked an important turning point in the handling of questionnaire surveys. The facts can be summarized as follows. The major American newspapers used to publish, before the elections, the results of empirical surveys produced from large samples (two million people polled for the Literary Digest) but without any method to select individuals. While most polls predicted Landon's victory, Roosevelt was elected. Surveys conducted by Crossley, Roper, and Gallup on smaller samples but using the quota method gave a correct prediction. This event helped to confirm the validity of the data provided by opinion polls.
This event, which favored the increase in the practice of sample surveys, was made without reference to the probabilistic theory that had already been developed. The method of Crossley, Roper, and Gallup is indeed not probabilistic but empirical, therefore validation of the adequacy of the method is experimental and absolutely not mathematical.