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Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Ron Adner and Rahul Kapoor (2016) explored the pace of technology substitution and suggested that the speed of replacement was based on ecosystems. Old technology ecosystems may find product extension opportunities whereas the new technology ecosystems need to counter these challenges. Within their framework there are four quadrants, as shown in Figure 1.1, which can be described as:

 Creative destruction, where there are few challenges to the new tech and few opportunities for the old tech, resulting in fast substitution.

 Robust coexistence, where the old tech fights back and brings out alternatives and a gradual substitution takes place.

 Illusion of resilience, where the new tech moves in with few challenges.

 Robust resilience, where old tech fights back and new tech challenges, bringing about a gradual substitution.

It could be argued that there are limitations to this framework as the research was based on a five-year study in the semiconductor manufacturing industry and adoption of new products is not always based on product desire, but also availability. In some countries it is harder to get a landline phone than a mobile. The landline requires wires and major investment whereas a mobile network is simpler to deploy. At the same time, growth in landline telephone ownership is declining sharply, especially in the G12 industrially advanced nations. Explore the latest statistics on the Telecommunication Development Sector (ITU-D, 2017).

Figure 1.1 A framework for analysing the pace of technology substitution

Source: Adner and Kapoor, 2016, p. 66