Читать книгу The Exponential Era - David Espindola - Страница 18

We can't promise you that we will eliminate uncertainty. Nobody can. But what we can tell you with a high degree of confidence is that there are robust methodologies and techniques that have been used effectively in diverse disciplines to manage uncertainty and the complexities associated with change. In the software field, where requirements are constantly changing, and the development of complex algorithms requires collaboration from individuals with diverse skills, the Agile movement brings much‐needed stability to a discipline that tends to be chaotic. In manufacturing, where rapid changes in customer demands, supplier schedules, engineering configurations, and production capacity challenge the ability to plan, Lean thinking provides innovative ways to address those challenges. In the world of design where there are no fixed solutions and no right or wrong answers, Design Thinking comes to the rescue. In the military, where lives are at stake in the battlefield, and leaders must make decisions under time pressure to outsmart opponents in the fog of war, the methodology developed by the US Air Force for air to air combat – Observe, Orient, Decide, Act – known as the OODA loop, provides a helpful framework to deal with such uncertainties.

As we explored how different disciplines deal with the types of challenges that executives encounter in developing strategies amid uncertainties typical of the Exponential Era, what stood out to us was just how much commonality was found in how these disciplines approach the problem. Our belief, and an important tenet of this book, is that the convergence of these principles, methods, and techniques used in multiple disciplines to deal effectively with the uncertainties of fast‐changing environments, connected in unique ways, form the basis of an effective methodology for strategic planning in the Exponential Era.