Читать книгу The Exponential Era - David Espindola - Страница 20

Several books and articles have been written about the Exponential Era, albeit, they may refer to it by a different name, such as the 4th Industrial Revolution. Even though much has been written about the changes that are occurring during this period, we felt that there was a gap in providing business leaders with a robust, well‐thought‐out, and effective methodology. One that not only can create clarity around these changes but also develops an actionable plan for benefiting from the opportunities and for mitigating the risks unearthed in this era. That became the impetus for our efforts in developing a new methodology for strategic planning and in describing it in this book.

The book is organized into three sections. In Section I we provide the context for the realities of the Exponential Era. We explain why it is so difficult for people to understand the nature of exponential growth. The gradual nature of the early stages of the exponential curve can be deceiving. We struggle to see how quickly exponential growth accelerates once it gets past the inflection point. These inflection points are so difficult to foresee that many large and successful companies have completely missed them, with disastrous results. We describe how Gordon Moore, co‐founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and CEO of Intel, published in a 1965 paper his observations about the doubling of the density of integrated circuits every 18–24 months, and his projection that this would continue for decades. The overarching principle behind Moore's observation, that computing capacity would continue to double every couple of years, still holds today, albeit, through unanticipated means of innovative materials and new technological approaches. This exponential growth of computing capacity has been one of the foundational forces driving the Exponential Era.

In Chapter 2, we discuss megatrends that are being shaped by the convergence of technology platforms. We describe several of these technology platforms, including Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Internet of Things, Biotechnology, and others. We discuss how the convergence of these platforms is creating trillions of dollars in economic value and generating unforeseen possibilities for business disruption and transformation. One example is how IoT and 5G combined to create a new ecosystem of superfast hyperconnected sensors and devices, allowing us to monitor and proactively deal with a vast number of situations, from weather changes to the spread of diseases.

In Chapter 3, we depict the types of organizations commonly found in the Exponential Era. We tell the story of several companies whose inability to intercept changing horizons led to their demise – we call them Flash Boiled Frogs. We show how emerging companies that took advantage of inflection points quickly grow to billion‐dollar valuations – the Disruptive Unicorns. We define Fast and Furious Gazelles, companies of all sizes that are able to grow very fast. We also describe large established companies – the Dancing Elephants – that use ambidextrous capabilities to simultaneously manage exploration and exploitation, jumping from one S‐curve to the next. And of course, we could not leave out the Dominating Gorillas, companies that are achieving overwhelming dominance in every sector of the exponential economy.

Section II is about how organizations can deal effectively with the realities of the Exponential Era by following a robust methodology that challenges the current thinking in strategic planning. In Chapter 4, we introduce this new methodology we call SPX and describe how it differs from traditional strategic planning processes. Then we get into the heart of the methodology. In Chapter 5, we explain how to listen to the early signals in order to identify and monitor horizons. In Chapter 6, we illustrate how companies can generate insights by setting up and learning from experiments. In Chapter 7, we discuss how to map organizational capabilities to risks and opportunities. In Chapter 8, we show how companies can formulate and implement plans, and make prioritized, feedback‐based, data‐driven decisions about strategic initiatives. Chapter 9 is a discussion about leadership, and how to create a culture that embraces change.

We close in Section III with a single chapter. Chapter 10 provides a discussion about the impact of the Exponential Era on humanity, and how the rapid changes we are experiencing challenge our current societal structures, economics, and ethics. We reflect upon our individual and collective legacies and the world we will leave for our children.