Читать книгу The Exponential Era - David Espindola - Страница 24

Humans are easily fooled by exponentials. To illustrate the point, we will borrow from the famous fable of the origin of the game of chess. Legend has it that the creator of chess presented it as a gift to an emperor in India. The emperor was so impressed with the ingenuity of the game that he felt compelled to compensate the man and asked him what he would like to receive as his reward. The man humbly responded:

“Oh emperor, my wishes are simple. I only wish for this. Give me one grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the next square, four for the next, eight for the next, and so on for all 64 squares, with each square having double the number of grains as the square before.”

The emperor was astounded that this ingenious man only wanted a few grains of rice as his reward for such a wonderful game. Without much thought, he granted the man his wishes. It wasn't until sometime later that his treasurer came back and advised the emperor that it would be impossible to pay the man the quantity requested, as the grains of rice added up to an exorbitant amount: 18 quintillion (18 followed by 18 zeroes) to be exact, the equivalent of roughly today's entire worldwide crop for a decade.¹⁹

How could the emperor be so easily deceived? Simple. He was thinking linearly like most of us often do, while the ingenious man understood and used the power of the exponential curve. And herein lies the threat, or the opportunity, depending on your point of view. Humans tend to think linearly, but the technology changes we are experiencing now follow an exponential curve.