Читать книгу Product Development - David V. Tennant - Страница 30

A number of countries have mandated that the IC engine will no longer be sold in new vehicles by the year 2030. This includes several European and Asian countries. The United States, in comparison, has not mandated a ban on ICs, but has public policies that push the USA in this direction. For example, there are significant tax credits (savings) for individuals and corporations who purchase alternative fuel vehicles. At the same time, taxes on existing fuels (gasoline and diesel) have been rising (increasing operating costs).

Consequently, the market is steadily moving from traditional fossil fuels to cleaner, alternative-fueled vehicles. For large-rig Semi trucks, the waters are a little murkier. For instance, the long haulers would need a range of 400 miles and a network of charging stations along the way. However, how long will it take to charge an 18-wheeler? If more than 30 minutes, this could be a barrier to entry. Also, the trucking industry has also been looking at natural gas-powered vehicles and hydrogen powered vehicles.

From a new product development standpoint, the market seems to be a moving target. In the United States, there are eight basic classifications of trucks as follows:⁷

Classes 1 through 3: light, non-commercial trucks such as pickups, SUVs, and minivans

Classes 4 through 6: medium-sized commercial trucks.

 Class 4 – Gross vehicle weight is between 14,001 lb. to 16,000 lb. Super duty pickups and walk-in box trucks fit this description.

 Class 5 – Gross vehicle weight is between 16,001 lb. to 19,500 lb. This class includes larger commercial walk-in trucks, delivery trucks and bucket trucks.

 Class 6 – Gross vehicle weight is between 19,501 lb. to 26,000 lb. School buses, weighing will generally fit into this category. Class 6 is also where a Commercial Driver’s License requirement appears. This also includes delivery trucks (UPS, Fed Ex, etc.).

Classes 7 and 8 are generally the big rig trucks, as follows:

 Class 7 – Gross vehicle weight is 26,001 lb. to 33,000 lb. These trucks are city street sweepers, garbage trucks, large buses, furniture trucks and smaller semi-trucks.

 Class 8 – generally “severe duty” trucks such as dump trucks, cement trucks and the large semis such as Peterbilt’s, Freightliner’s, and Kenworth’s. Many of these trucks have three axles (or more) and weigh over 33,001 lb. Some of the larger rigs can weigh up to 80,000 lb.

All the above classes of vehicles have prototype or production models using batteries and electric motors in place of IC engines or diesel motors – even the large Freightliner trucks. However, the adoption and use of truck EVs is far from certain and economics plays a huge role in its future.

For instance, small trucks, pickups etc. are now available to the public in EV configuration. The Ford F-150 truck, one of the most popular trucks on the U.S. market, is now available using electric motors in place of the IC engine.

The determination of electric motors will be driven by vehicle usage combined with the initial cost and operational costs.

For example, Categories 1 through 3 and 4 through 6 trucks will be suitable for use during the day and charging at night. This is most likely a strong market for truck EV sales.

Delivery trucks such as those used by UPS and Fed Ex are good candidates as they are delivering during the day and parked (for re-charging) over night. School buses would be similar as they pick up and discharge children in the morning and late afternoon; then are parked overnight. The initial cost of electric vehicles is higher than traditional IC engines, so usage will play a large part. Table 2.6 show data on average annual miles driven.

Table 2.6 Truck Category Average Annual Miles.²

Category	Average Annual Miles Driven
Delivery truck (e.g., UPS)	12,500
School bus	11,000
City transit bus	42,000
Class 8 semi-truck	63,000
Postal Service (USPS) long-life trucks	5,100

If we consider the United States Postal Service (USPS), their full fleet of delivery trucks uses 85 million gallons of fuel per year.³ The current average price for gasoline (July 2021) is $3.22, so annual fuel costs for the whole USPS delivery fleet would be:

85 million gallons × $3.22 per gal = $273.7 million dollars annual fuel costs.

One EV USPS delivery truck electricity cost:

212,000 trucks × $408 = $86,496,000. This means, operationally, USPS could save about $187 million per year in fuel costs by switching to EVs. Of course, this does not consider the following:

Additional Costs

 Capital costs to install electric charging stations

 The initial higher cost of EV trucks

Cost Savings

 Federal tax credits for switching to EVs

 Significantly lower maintenance costs (primarily tires and brakes).

There are approximately 212,000 vehicles in the delivery fleet. The USPS fleet would be an optimal target for EV sales as they are out for delivery during the day and back to the fleet station to charge overnight.

There are many opportunities for companies looking to affiliate with the coming EV market. Table 2.7, on New EV Opportunities, outlines a few of them.

Table 2.7 Potential New EV Opportunities.

Opportunity	Companies or Industries
Charging station manufacturers and installers	Siemens, General Electric, Tesla, and many others.
Truck stops and gas (charging) stations	All along highways and secondary roads, a new, extensive network of charging stations will be required. Current gas stations, malls, and restaurants are likely users.
Utilities	EV charging may represent large electric sales in off-peak (overnight) hours. This may increase the need for new (but cleaner), power plants.
Manufacturers and dealers	All car and truck manufacturers and their dealer networks will be on the forefront of EV technology implementation.
Battery manufacturers	Those firms that will supply auto/truck makers with new lithium or similar batteries.
Battery recycling	With more and larger batteries on the road, at some point there will be a need to recycle or safely dispose of car/truck batteries.
Rare mineral extraction companies (i.e., lithium)	Most EV car batteries use lithium as a core component. Lithium is not common in all countries and there are a limited number of companies in this specific mining extraction business.
Home builders and electrical contractors	EV will require car charging stations in both existing homes and new homes. This represents a lucrative business opportunity.

Table developed by David Tennant.

Note that disruptive technologies can provide opportunities for new business creations in the areas of new products, product support, spin-off businesses, and jobs. Federal, state, and local areas consider subsidies as a positive feature for the following reasons:

 Subsidies are used to move the economy from one form of business to another. In the case of EVs, from a polluting energy fuel to a cleaner fuel source.

 It creates jobs, and therefore economic activity and a tax base.

 New technologies keep industry competitive at home and abroad.

The above table lists just a few of the opportunities that EV vehicles will offer to large companies and entrepreneurs alike. There will be many spin-off companies as a resulting shift in transportation focus.