Читать книгу Business Decision Making - Dr. Eduardo A. Morato Jr. - Страница 7

If problems are deviations from expectations, then solving them would just return the organization to its “normal” or expected state of being. There are four types of problems: (1) there are simple problems with singular causes, (2) there are complex problems with multiple causes, (3) there are problems that create other potential problems, and (4) there are problems that might potentially emerge if the decisions were made and carried out, meaning they are future threats.

For the first type, the single cause should be “discovered” or “uncovered”, and then corrected through an intervention mechanism. Examples of this type of problem includes: (1) machinery and equipment that suddenly do not work because of a faulty part; (2) increasing level of rejects because one portion of the work process is not being done correctly; (3) reduced output due to a particular bottleneck that has lessened the overall capacity; (4) delayed deliveries due to a greater number of outlets; (5) higher level of customer complaints due to bad handling of delivered packages.

In complex problems with multiple causes, all the significant causes must be identified and evaluated as to their impact on the desired or expected results. For example, the problem of frequent stockouts in an enterprise may have several causes such as poor forecasting of sales, poor ordering and re-ordering practices and lack of working capital to make timely and cheaper purchases of the merchandise to be sold. Another example is the declining sales of a product due to: (1) more competitive products in the market; (2) higher prices being charged by the enterprise due to its higher costs and inferior promotional campaigns, and; (3) poor selling practices compared to the competition.

Problems that lead to other potential problems are significant performance deviations, which, if not arrested, would precipitate a chain effect of unwanted consequences. For example, a series of bad operating losses by a bank would lead to: (1) reduced cash inflows from collections; (2) more regulatory intervention by the authorities; (3) a possible bank run, and; (4) a much reduced ability to lend money which may even bring it to bankruptcy. Another example is an automotive manufacturer that recently experienced product recalls due to faulty brakes. This problem would lead to higher costs (recalling and replacement costs), a tarnished image leading to lower sales, and the slowing down of future plant production with dire consequences on employee morale.

Potential problems or future threats arise from decisions that are being made. For example, if the business decision is to enter a new market with a new product, the potential problems can be legion. Competitors may respond with price reductions or launch their own counter-offensive products. Distribution channels may take some time to adjust their logistical capabilities, thus derailing the entire effort. If the new product were not thoroughly researched on intellectual property violations, then legal suits may hound the enterprise.