Читать книгу EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 - Группа авторов - Страница 15

In 2019, the European economy was gradually slowing down after six years of relatively weak expansion. The slowdown could be traced back to more sluggish international trade resulting from tensions between the United States and some of its main trading partners. Just as the export-oriented engines of European growth were running out of steam, the coronavirus pandemic broke out. The virus spread quickly around the globe, forcing governments to take sweeping measures in an attempt to arrest it. The associated restrictions brought whole swathes of the EU economy to a near complete standstill with severe implications for consumer spending, investment and overall economic activity. The ECB deployed a major policy package in response, and this time, domestic fiscal policies and European policy also joined forces to safeguard the European ecosystem during the lockdowns imposed in the various countries.

This chapter sets the stage for the analysis provided throughout this report by giving an overview of the economic situation at the outbreak of the pandemic. The first section outlines the macroeconomic environment in Europe and the world in the first half of 2020, focusing on the link between EU economies, global growth and international trade. The second section details the latest developments in real GDP growth and labour markets in the European Union. Four boxes provide further detail. Box A quantifies the likely effects on GDP of the re-introduction of government restrictions in the fourth quarter of 2020. Box B frames the economic shock due to the pandemic in a historical perspective. Box C outlines the challenges to European social protection systems posed by the pandemic. Box D discusses the use of short-term working schemes in the European Union during the crisis. The third section focuses on financial developments and the fiscal and monetary policy response to the considerable economic shock. Box E in this section outlines EU banks’ credit exposure and policy responses. The chapter ends with concluding remarks and policy implications.