Читать книгу EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 - Группа авторов - Страница 7

Europe’s future prosperity depends on leading the next wave of industrial transformation: digitalisation. The digital revolution has already transformed industries, production processes and ways of living and working, but many of these shifts are only just beginning. As with previous technology waves, taking an early lead can be critical for lasting competitiveness. Yet with the global innovation and technology landscape changing rapidly, Europe risks becoming entrenched in its position as a follower on digitalisation.

So far, the impact of digitalisation has been largely benign. Technological waves, like the first industrial revolution, have driven massive changes in the nature of work, its location and the skills people need. Digitalisation has already caused a shift towards high-skilled occupations, with these jobs tending to cluster in favoured urban areas, particularly capital city regions. EIBIS data present interesting evidence. Firms that have adopted digital technologies are also more productive, more innovative and more likely to export. They are creating more employment than non-digital firms and also pay higher wages on average. Digitalisation has provided a strong stabilising effect during the COVID-19 crisis.

But a painful process of re-adjustment awaits firms and regions that lag behind. A trend towards economic and geographical polarisation is emerging, contrasting the digital leadership of some firms and regions with the slow progress of others. Job growth in recent years has been driven by higher-skilled positions. In the near future, the accelerated loss of low and medium-skilled jobs through automation could create a massive need for re-skilling.

The adoption of digital technologies by EU firms is growing, but it has not yet closed the gap with the United States. By 2020, 37% of European firms had still not adopted any new digital technologies, compared with 27% in the United States. Encouragingly, the proportion of digital firms in the European Union grew by nearly 5 percentage points over the 2019 level, but the United States saw a comparable increase. The gap with the United States is particularly marked in the construction and service sectors, and in the adoption of technologies associated with the internet of things.

Firm size and market fragmentation appear to be holding back digital adoption in Europe. High fixed costs and financing obstacles for intangible assets often make it easier for large firms to invest in digital technologies. Adoption rates for micro and small firms are notably lagging on both sides of the Atlantic. The comparatively small average size of European firms – itself a partial reflection of the continued fragmentation of European markets along national lines, including for digital services – is likely contributing to the continent’s low digital adoption rates.

Municipal investment in digital infrastructure is advancing, but disparities could result in further polarisation. Over the last three years, 70% of European municipalities increased investment in digital infrastructure. Looking forward, municipalities state that digital remains a top priority, alongside social and climate-related investments. But there are strong regional disparities in the perceived adequacy of municipal infrastructure investment. A lack of digital infrastructure is seen as a major obstacle for investment by 16% of EU firms, vs. only 5% in the United States. There is also some evidence that digital adoption by firms is higher in municipalities that have better digital capacities and infrastructure.

Europe is losing ground within a rapidly changing global innovation landscape. While still at the forefront of technology, the European Union is investing less in research and development (R&D) as a percentage of GDP than other major economies, and China is emerging as a major player. Europe’s weakness lies in its lower business R&D spending. European companies are among global R&D leaders in various traditional industries, but are less present in fast-growing digital sectors such as software and computer services, where Chinese firms are starting to challenge the United States. The European Union also does not appear to be generating many new innovation leaders, especially in the digital sector, potentially jeopardising its long-term competitiveness.