Читать книгу EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 - Группа авторов - Страница 19

European economies are more open than other advanced economies. Export dependence, defined as the share of exports and imports to GDP, is above 66% in Germany and higher than 40% in France (Figure 5). Overall, external trade in goods and services accounts for 27% of euro area GDP, a share that rises to 45% when including trade among EU members. The European economy is therefore highly integrated and maintaining cross-border movement is key to its functioning, more so than elsewhere in the world. Regions located close to borders also rely heavily on commuting foreign workers to function (Figure 6). Taking into account the implications of cross-border mobility restrictions is therefore of paramount importance, and the corresponding policies must be developed at the European, and not just the local, level. A major risk is that uncoordinated lockdowns lead to repeated virus outbreaks and, in turn, further lockdowns across Europe, resulting in steeper declines in GDP (Kohlscheen et al., 2020).

Figure 5

External trade in goods in EU economies (% GDP, 2019)

Source: EIB Economics Department calculations based on Eurostat.

Note: Last record 2019.

Guaranteeing a level playing field and preventing increased divergence within Europe are essential. Given asymmetries in financial conditions, the European single market is at risk and widening disparities should be avoided. In Figure 7, we correlate the decline in GDP with GDP per capita for EU economies. While EU countries have been affected to different extents – the decline in GDP following the first wave ranged from zero to 14% – the impact is unrelated to countries’ relative wealth. It would have been reasonable to expect the capacity of hospitals and health services to be related to income per capita, with poorer countries less able to provide medical assistance and therefore implementing longer and more stringent lockdown policies to prevent the rapid saturation of the medical system. While this factor may have played a role, many others were also at issue. Ultimately, and fortunately, the magnitude of the shock was unrelated to the level of economic development. Preventing a widening of divergences in Europe after the pandemic will be critical.

Figure 6

Cross-border workers (country of work, thousands, 2018)

Source: European Commission, 2019 Report on intra-EU Labour Mobility.

Figure 7

EU economies: Income per capita and ouput decline during the first wave

Source: Eurostat and EIB calculations.

Note: Last record, October 2020.

A strong EU response is needed to avoid second-round effects and negative spillovers. Above and beyond the policy measures of individual Member States, a strong need exists for a common, mutually reinforcing EU response to the crisis. European economies are strongly interconnected and a shock experienced in any member spreads to the rest of the European Union through labour movements, value chains, terms of trade and external demand. These spillovers can be fairly significant. In addition to the direct impact of the crisis, a 1% change in the GDP of Germany, France, Italy and Spain results in a further indirect change in the euro area’s GDP of 0.25%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1 % respectively, merely on account of trade spillovers in the euro area (ECB, 2013).

Similarly, a positive shock in any EU country triggers favourable effects throughout the European Union. The impact of EIB loans is a good illustration of how interdependent EU economies are. Macroeconomic modelling by the Economics Department of the EIB Group together with the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission shows that, in the long run, indirect effects can be substantial. Cross-country spillovers in the European Union explain, on average, 40% of the impact of EIB investment on jobs and GDP in EU members. While smaller and more integrated countries gain more in relative terms, large EU countries also benefit greatly from positive spillover effects. In Germany, for instance, spillover effects account for more than 30% of the total impact of EIB investment on jobs (EIB, 2018).