Читать книгу EIB Investment Report 2020/2021 - Группа авторов - Страница 17

COVID-19 is a genuinely global shock to the world’s economy. By its very nature, the original pandemic shock was unrelated to the structure of the world’s economies. Its origin was independent from economic policies, but the policies put in place to limit the virus’s spread had economic implications. Most countries implemented lockdowns and restricted the free movement of people within national territories and across borders. Infection waves were not fully synchronised across continents, but they tended to be relatively closely aligned within Europe, with its highly integrated landscape.

The first wave hit Europe towards the end of the first quarter of 2020 and the second wave in the beginning of the fourth quarter. Figure 1 shows the trend in COVID-related deaths in the world’s major economies. In the second wave, the rise in the death rate seemed to be less acute as countries are better prepared thanks to the lessons learned from the first wave. However, the implementation of a second lockdown in most European countries serves as a reminder that the situation will remain problematic until a vaccine is distributed to a large share of the population.

Imposing lockdowns has, so far, been the policy option to curbing the increase in infection rates and avoiding bottlenecks in the health system. The chain of events is as follows. Higher infection numbers help the virus spread. This increases the likelihood of vulnerable people becoming infected, who, more than other people, may require hospitalisation in intensive health care units. Given the limited number of spaces, the system can quickly be stretched to its capacity, driving the fatality rate up substantially. To avoid this, lockdown policies, with varying degrees of strictness, have been implemented across the world to flatten the curve. As shown in Figure 2, these policies drastically limit freedom of movement and require some shops and public places to be closed.

Figure 1

Fatality rates (COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants)

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and EIB calculations.

Note: Last record 3 November 2020.

Figure 2

Google mobility indicators (EU average)

Source: Google Community Mobility Reports and EIB calculations.

Note: Last record 2019. GDP weighted. The reports chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places. Mobility is compiled in deviation from a baseline day, defined as the median value from the five week period 3 January – 6 February 2020.

Lockdown policies took a toll on economic activity, and in 2020 global trade and world GDP collapsed. It is not only Europe, but the entire world economy that has been hugely affected. In its October 2020 World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts that global real GDP will contract by 4.4% in 2020, and rebound in 2021 (Figure 3). Emerging market economies are facing an extremely challenging situation, with GDP declining in 2020 for the first time since the early 1990s, if not earlier. This is in stark contrast with the global financial crisis. In addition to the toll on public health, emerging economies have had to deal with the losses in domestic activity caused by containment measures, plummeting foreign demand, collapsing commodity prices and disappearing capital flows.

Prior to the second wave, a relatively swift rebound in worldwide economic activity was still expected. The IMF October 2020 World Economic Outlook was prepared and issued well before the second wave of infection and lockdown in Europe, and pointed towards a relatively swift rebound in the world economy. However, the arrival of the second wave means that it will take longer for economies to begin fully functioning again, which is not expected before a vaccine is widely distributed. As the crisis may last well into 2021, some emerging economies very dependent on tourism may well suffer two consecutive years of ultra-weak activity.

The pandemic hit some European economies harder than others. It is not fully understood how the virus spreads, but in Europe higher infection rates triggered more stringent lockdowns, which weighed on individual economies. Other factors were also at play, such as the composition of GDP and the share of tourism (Sapir, 2020). The COVID-19 crisis will most likely lead to structural changes in the economy as some sectors decline or remain lacklustre for a long time (including international travel and tourism, or transport services as people turn more to remote working and therefore commute less) while others expand to support new lifestyles (such as telecoms, and, more broadly, digital activities). Given the differences in the composition of European economies, some economies are likely to be more affected than others.

Figure 3

Composition of global growth (% and percentage points)

Source: IMF October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and EIB calculations.

Note: Projections over 2020-2024. Last record 2024.

Figure 4

Global exports in the world economy (exports over GDP, %)

Source: IMF October 2020 WEO and EIB calculations.

Note: Last record 2020, partially projected.

During the second wave, governments have tried to rebalance the economic costs of lockdown policies. After the first wave, the strategy of limiting the spread of infection by testing and isolating positive cases was stepped up, but so far, this strategy has not sufficed. At the onset of the second wave, bars and restaurants were closed in most of Europe, followed by the introduction of curfews, and then lockdowns.

The longer the crisis, the deeper the scars. Infection waves may continue until a vaccine is widely distributed. Relatively good news was reported in the beginning of December with several vaccines approved for use by medical authorities in various countries. In the best case scenario, however, the mass production and administering of a vaccine will take months, which means the crisis is likely to continue well into 2021. The longer the crisis, the deeper the scars, and the greater the increase in corporate and government borrowing. Meanwhile, as the pandemic wears on, containment policies will inevitably continue to immobilise the economy, while public support will focus on maintaining the ecosystem and limiting capital erosion (Lagarde, 2020).