Читать книгу Cindynics, The Science of Danger - Guy Planchette - Страница 18

While the methods, studies or standardization commonly used to manage risks have been quite effective, it is undeniable that through the history of accidents and disasters, their effectiveness is still not entirely satisfactory.

In order to fully understand cindynics, it seems useful to examine what its concepts can add to postponing the occurrence of feared events.

Indeed, any risk study currently conducted starts with the knowledge of the dangers existing within the situation under examination. This phase, which is the keystone of a risk study approach, is called the “hazard study”.

Let us recall that the method most often used for risk studies is the one called MADS–MOSAR which involves:

 – a model called “Methodology of Systems Dysfunctioning (MADS)” also called Universe of Danger [PÉR 00];

 – a method called MOSAR, “organized method of systemic risk analysis” that allows the identification of major risk scenarios using methods and tools for operational safety.

The use of the MADS model makes clear the priority given to the search for hazards¹: it uses “systemic modeling by breaking down the installation into sub-systems and systematically searching for the hazards presented by each of them”.

This model is used to establish a hazard qualification grid. ⁷

Concepts linked to cindynics are therefore perfectly aligned with the principle of thinking about danger before paying attention to the risks and the initiating event. However, the hazard research carried out by MADS is limited to the exploration of a table of hazards of technical origin². And while these have been brought to our attention, it is because they have been described and catalogued, because they are perceptible. It is therefore on this level that cindynics concepts differ and bring about very great originality, because the dangers or sources of risks are certainly of technical origin, but they are also organizational, cultural or managerial (see section 1.1).

Cindynics therefore meets the need for in-depth research into complementary sources of risk, either difficult to identify or coming from pathogenic elements which, if they do not attract attention, can unknowingly weaken an organization’s ability to resist hazards (see the term “organization” in the Glossary)³. Recalling the importance of focusing on sources of risk that are difficult to perceive, [DEL 20] notes: “the two-week fall in the Dow Jones and the CAC 40 gives credence to the famous black swan theory, developed by the statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, according to which the greatest financial catastrophes are triggered by seemingly minor events whose rarity is such that it makes them unpredictable for market operators”.

The ISO 31000:2018 standard states that the success of risk management depends on the effectiveness of an organization’s management framework integrating the understanding of the organization and its context, the establishment of risk management policy, responsibilities and so on, in order to lead to a risk management process.

It further states that:

 – managing risk is part of governance and leadership and how the organization is managed;

 – managing risk includes interaction with stakeholders as an integral part of all activities of the organization;

 – managing risk considers the internal and external context of the organization, including human behavior and cultural factors.

However, while the cindynics approach is completely in line with the prescriptions of the ISO 31000:2018 standard, it obligatorily precedes the risk assessment phase by the study of an assessment phase of all types of hazards (or sources of risk).

A “risk mapping” tool is commonly used in risk management in order to create and share a risk frame of reference.

Cindynics tools also use a frame of reference which concerns sharing through a process that is in line with the recommendations of the ISO 31000:2018 standard but whose purpose is to highlight the hazards through matrices of deficits and dissonances.

NOTE.– In the remainder of this book and to comply with the ISO 31000:2018 standard, the term “risk source” will be used instead of “hazard”.

Then, to become fully aware of the originality of cindynics involves discovering that its concepts incorporate a method, tools and processes that are adapted to the complexity of systems, as well as an approach to the study of risk sources adapted to the complexity of systems.