Читать книгу Binary Trading - John Piper - Страница 36

But it is important to note that although the price will reflect the probability; it will not be the probability. Other factors will influence price, for example how much money is on each team.

My statement:

the price will reflect the probability; it will not be the probability

may confuse you but it is an essential point. There is a concept known as value which is often applied to bets generally. Professional gamblers are very familiar with the concept as it is how and why they win. A bet has value if it offers better odds than the event itself would lead you to expect. So if the horse, Mr. Splodge, with a binary priced at 8/11, has a 25% chance of winning the binary price should really be 23/27 or thereabouts.

If you can buy a bet which should be priced at 23/27 at 8/11 then you are clearly getting good value. Similarly if the bet is priced at 8/11 and there really is a 25% chance of Mr. Splodge winning the race then the price of 8/11 may be an attempt to reflect the probability of the event but it will clearly not be that probability – which is 25%.

It was this concept I was referring to when I was talking earlier about the art of binary betting and said that you should

give yourself a further edge by choosing bets with a higher probability of success.

Don’t be concerned if you have trouble with this at this stage. This is something you will develop a feel for as you become more experienced.