Читать книгу Binary Trading - John Piper - Страница 37

If you are betting on a financial market, perhaps the FTSE 100 Index, then throughout the session the binary prices will be moving to reflect three factors:

1 The time left on the bet until expiry.

2 The price of the underlying market as distinct from the price of the bet itself. In particular how far up or down the market is on the day.

3 Volatility – the speed of market action.

How far up or down a market moves is a measure of its distance from parity and I define parity as when the market (or index) is unchanged over the relevant period. This period may be a day or a week or an hour, among other time frames. Many binary bets are based on the prior close and in that case it is how far the market is up or down since that prior close that is important. But if we are looking at an hourly bet which may run from 3pm to 4pm then it is the “close” at 3pm that is important.

However, weight of money is also an important factor and prices will move as money flows in one particular direction. One of the betting companies told me they work on the assumption that if a lot of money goes onto a bet they have mis-priced it.

Some would see this as manipulation or as unfair. But a successful trader will see it as an opportunity!