Читать книгу Beat the Crowd - Kenneth Fisher - Страница 11

Contrarians know when not to move and where not to go. How? They know markets are mostly efficient. Not fully, perfectly efficient at every moment – otherwise there would be no opportunities! Contrarians realize markets can be quite irrational in the short term. But over time and on average, prices typically reflect all widely known information. If it’s out there, in the public domain, investors have already considered it and traded on it.

Rules, conventional wisdom and consensus expectations are all widely known. Ditto for ideological beliefs, biases and every “expert” view. Every textbook theory, rulebook and playbook ever published – markets know them inside and out. They know the rules, know the if-thens and know how most folks are likely to react to every news nugget. Markets know what the crowd will do before the people themselves know.

The same is true for seasonal myths and technical indicators. Dow Theory is perhaps the most extreme example. This indicator, around since the late nineteenth century, says that when the Dow Transports and Industrials hit new highs together, you get a lasting bull trend. If they hit new lows together, look out below. There is also a lot of mumbo-jumbo in between, but I’ll spare you – the extremes are what matter. If Dow Theory were right, no bull market would ever end because the signal would keep on signaling, and stocks would keep on rising! Same in a bear market. But cycles always turn! Markets have priced all those Dow Theory expectations, and they’ll ultimately do something different.