Читать книгу Beat the Crowd - Kenneth Fisher - Страница 6

Legend lumps all investors into two categories: bulls and bears. Those who think stocks will rise, and those who think stocks will fall. If the masses are bullish, Wall Street says anyone who’s bearish is a contrarian. If the masses are bearish, bulls are the contrarians.

But this is wrong. It implies “everyone” – one big crowd who thinks stocks will do one thing – and “everyone else,” another crowd thinking stocks will do the opposite. “Everyone else” often thinks they’re contrarian. They think “everyone” is the herd, and the herd is always dead wrong. They’ve seen the countless academic studies showing the majority of investors are just terrible at making investment decisions, usually selling low and buying high. They believe doing the opposite of the crowd guarantees buying low and selling high.

Problem is, “everyone else” is as crowd-like as “everyone.” Their opinions usually aren’t unique, and their analysis often isn’t any broader or better than the main crowd’s. They look at all the same things, just with a dissenting, condescending sneer. People thinking this way and that they’re contrarians aren’t any smarter, any more discerning than you or me or the crowd. Their moves rarely pay off any better.

That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news: You can be a real contrarian! Once you know what leads the crowd or both crowds astray, it isn’t hard to think better and act smarter. It’s impossible to be perfect, but to be better than most isn’t so hard.