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One hundred years ago, vast tracts of Asia were under colonial rule or foreign domination. Powerful industrialized countries controlled the destinies of many millions of Asians – in the region, only Thailand and Japan could be regarded as sovereign nations. And so it continued for almost fifty years more, through and beyond the Second World War.

Now, as the twentieth century draws to a close, the continent can look back over several decades of extraordinary changes and rapid development. Many Asians enjoy levels of education and affluence that surpass even those of the old colonial masters. The last vestige of foreign dominion was removed at midnight, 30 June 1997, when Britain returned Hong Kong to China, thereby ending what many Chinese described as ‘150 years of shame’.

Asians now control their own destiny. The region’s response to several big issues will be crucial in shaping that destiny and determining what sort of century the next one will be.

Economic Adjustment

It is a great pity for the region that the Hong Kong handover celebrations on 30 June were almost immediately overtaken by months of headlines about a regional economic crisis that grew and grew, just as forest fires in Indonesia burned out of control and blanketed much of south-east Asia in choking smoke. The sobering effect of the crisis has led to widespread fears that the hard-won economic gains of the last decades may be lost in some countries and that the twenty-first century may not after all turn out to be ‘the Asian century’ as had been so widely predicted.

At the time of writing, the ramifications of the regional economic crisis are still working themselves through. Many analysts have come to the conclusion that the crisis was caused by structural problems, which the region is now being forced to tackle. According to this analysis, a good shakeout will help the countries of the region to discard unproductive practices and get themselves into shape for the next stage in their development. Lower currencies will provide an extra edge in export markets for manufacturers in the region who ride out the storm.

‘Structural,’ however, may be too pat an explanation, and if accepted at face value could deflect the deeper analysis and problem-solving necessary to restore the tigers’ roar. Rampant over-investment in icons such as office buildings, hotels and airports soaked up billions of dollars that may have been better invested in future productivity. Over-reliance on traditional relationships as the basis for business, at the expense of a truly open market, led to many self-interested decisions. And a natural business cycle was at play here, too. Boom to bust, expansion followed by recession, has been the hallmark of the twentieth century. No one should have believed Asia was immune.

Not all countries in the region were affected. The Philippines barely merited a mention in the frenzied media coverage. Perhaps it should have. Its growth period started later (having been held back by the Marcos years), so it had less far to fall, but it did fall … and hard. In contrast, Vietnam only recently hooked into the global economy (when the US trade embargo was lifted in 1994) and its currency, the dong, isn’t convertible, so its exposure to the storm was limited. As a highly placed resident Westerner put it, ‘We haven’t seen much of the economic crisis here. Vietnam is still trying to sort out a local problem – Stalinism.’

China’s experience of the economic storm came mainly through Hong Kong, which is exposed to regional economies through its finance sector. Unlike in other countries in the region, Hong Kong bank authorities managed to defend the Hong Kong dollar against the pressure of the foreign exchange markets. Its peg against the US dollar is widely expected to hold, thanks to the dollar reserves of the city and the pride that’s at stake – for the Hong Kong dollar to weaken so soon after the departure of Britain would mean a terrible loss of face for Beijing. The main Hong Kong casualty of the Asian crisis to date is Peregrine Investment Holdings, which collapsed largely as a result of its exposure in Indonesia.

As for the rest, Taiwan appears confident that it can continue its steady economic growth, and the effects of the Asian economic crisis have barely been felt in China, although the warning has not gone unnoticed. Dentsu Young & Rubicam (DY&R) Guangzhou reports that ‘there is much fear in China given the recent drop in economy in the region and the talk of devaluing the yuan or the renminbi’. China gives the region cause to hold its collective breath. If the renminbi were to fall, it is likely to take the rest of the region’s currencies down with it.

As many commentators have pointed out, the only foreseeable major threat to the region lies in the social consequences of the economic crisis and the adjustments that the region is going through. For the last twenty years Asia has been largely stable and peaceful. Only a very small minority of Asians has been concerned with political freedom and social inequality – South Koreans routinely take to the streets to do battle with the authorities – as the majority has been more interested in working hard for material prosperity. However, any setback to rising standards of living could prompt social unrest, as was seen in Indonesia in late 1997 and early 1998. Indonesia has emerged as one of the most deeply troubled economies, with its authorities apparently reluctant to take the sort of action that has the potential to salvage the situation in other hard-hit countries, such as Thailand and South Korea.

DY&R Korea reports cautious optimism there as people tentatively hope for a return to Korea’s previous record of growth. South Korea is no stranger to the vested interests and cosy behind-the-scenes deal-making that have characterized Asian economies in recent years, but it has taken the IMF’s strictures very seriously. With the country’s recent record of solid achievement as an economic power, and its national determination to out-do neighbouring Japan, the economic crisis could strengthen South Korea in the long run.

Although China has been barely affected there are fears that even the current process of economic change there could lead to problems. As DY&R’s Sharon Lee in Shanghai put it, ‘If the income gaps between rural and urban centres are not narrowed, there may be tremendous social upheaval.’

The Journal of Business Ethics spelled out the issues: ‘In the transformation of the employment system and the opening of labor markets, there are nearly one hundred million potentially unemployed people in rural areas, and ten million in state-owned enterprises. If the enterprises continue to employ the latter, the reforms in the enterprises will fail and the new enterprise cannot bear such heavy burdens. Moreover, it is easier for rural workers to find jobs in cities because they are willing to accept lower wages than urban workers … Shanghai has two million unemployed workers but four million and sixty thousand jobs are offered to the non-local workers.’

The factors that were expected to make ‘the Asian Century’ on the whole still apply: large, dynamic populations eager to work for prosperity (and to work for less than many of their ‘developed market’ counterparts); belief in education and training; belief in market economics along with respect for collective values; social stability; growing self confidence; and huge, largely untapped markets for growth-minded multinationals. The region has already established a track record for realizing its potential, and there is clearly still more potential to be tapped in the twenty-first century.

Asian Consciousness

National boundaries are internationally established, but regional boundaries are in the eye of the beholder. For example, what Westerners think of as ‘the Middle East’ is called ‘West Asia’ in the Malaysian media. For our purposes, the Asian countries covered in this section are those in the Asia Pacific region, with shorelines washed by Pacific Ocean waters. Even within this definition, Asia is a vast and diverse region, stretching from the highly seasonal north of Japan down to the equator and beyond, including the year-round tropical heat of Indonesia. The religious landscape is similarly varied, ranging from Confucianism in the north, Catholicism in the Philippines, through many varieties of Buddhism and growing devotion to Islam in the south, with a recent overlay of Marxism in China and Vietnam.

Talking with people in the region, there seems to be little clear agreement about what makes them ‘Asian’. For some, it’s a certain gentleness and graciousness of manner that contrasts with the more abrupt style of Westerners. For others, it’s the central place that rice growing and eating have had in shaping the cultures of the region, or it’s a question of geographical proximity and unity, even though the vast majority of people in the region have never travelled abroad. Still others cite the much-touted ‘Asian values’, meaning respect for authority and age, and a willingness to put the interests of the group before the interests of the individual.

In the final analysis, being Asian may ultimately be a question of choice, a question of identifying with the issues, interests and sensibilities of other people in the region, and making common cause with them. Unlike in Europe, where a similar process is taking place, most Asians are fortunate in not having recent memories of war to overcome as they forge links with their neighbours. Although memories of Japanese occupation linger long for some older Asians, there are fewer people old enough to remember the war.

The development of Asian consciousness, and with it Asian power, will come not just from trading goods, but also from sharing ideas and culture. While Asia is a powerhouse exporter of manufactured goods, it continues to be a big importer of entertainment and style products – Hollywood films, popular music, designer fashion wear, computer software, sports. Consumers in Asia, and indeed around the world, would have no hesitation in buying electronic goods or domestic appliances made in Asia, but the same cannot be said for ‘intellectual copyright’ products. The region has its own products in this area, but the audience is barely regional, let alone global.

As Steven Lyons, of Burson-Marsteller Hong Kong, said, ‘Lifestyles and values will continue to be altered by Western media and product developments. Asia will have to work hard at maintaining its cultural identities. Rural areas will be the last bastions of traditional cultural and family values.’

The emergence of Asian confidence and creativity will be a key factor in the maturing of the region. The turning point will come when Vietnamese soap operas top the TV ratings in Indonesia, when Indonesian pop stars play to packed stadiums in Thailand, when a Thai fashion designer sells like hotcakes in Shanghai, when a Chinese feature film breaks box office records across Asia.

Getting Schooled

One of the cornerstones of ‘Asian values’ is emphasis on the importance of education. In societies without social security, children are a sort of pension plan. It used to be smart to have lots of children to spread the risk. These days, the emphasis has switched from having lots of pairs of hands to having a few well-educated brains. Family sizes are shrinking, and parents are investing in putting their children through higher education.

The pressure to get educated is being felt by children of all ages, all the way down to preschoolers. Steven Lyons expects ‘serious education to start at increasingly younger ages (three to four)’. Our colleague Stuart Harris, a market research practitioner in Kuala Lumpur, reports, ‘My son Ruben got his first school report in Kuala Lumpur at age twenty-one months!’ As DY&R Shanghai observed, ‘The pressures from their parents are tremendous, to the point where children are given little time to enjoy themselves – most of it is spent studying or learning new skills, such as computer, piano, painting, etc.’

Rapidly expanding economies need skilled and educated people at every level, which has resulted in a severe labour shortage in some of the faster growing economies of the region – and has provided a bonanza for overseas universities, particularly in Australia, Britain, the United States and Canada. But the sharp devaluation of some currencies in the region, and the risk of devaluation hitting other currencies, is making students look closer to home for their education. ‘There will be a major drop in Asian students being sent abroad,’ predicted Han van Dijk, of DY&R Singapore.

Two key education factors will be crucial in determining the shape and success of Asia in the twenty-first century.

The first is how education is imparted. Obedience and respect for authority are deeply instilled in Asian children. Unquestioning rote learning is the norm, and not only for Chinese and Japanese children, who need to memorize hundreds of complex characters just to be able to read. While the top-down, memorizing approach produces socially responsible youngsters who apply themselves diligently to their studies, some people are beginning to worry that it doesn’t foster the personal qualities that Asia needs to make quantum leaps into new economies of the next century.

Already Japanese employers are complaining that university graduates are not up to speed for today’s workplace – the Economist reports that unemployment among graduates and school leavers is two to three times higher than the national average. The government has introduced changes to take the emphasis off exhaustive examination. However, as the Economist reported separately last year, parents may welcome the idea of more liberal, creative education, but they fear changes may damage their children’s chances of employment.

Nevertheless, DY&R Tokyo thinks the country is likely to see greater emphasis on teaching analytical skills, with more attention paid to the personal development of children, while in China, DY&R Shanghai forecasts that education will become ‘more focused on guiding children, bringing out their potential instead of forcing them to memorize everything that they may not even understand. The whole examination system will be changed. Grades are still important, but will not mean everything ten years later. More students will be accepted in universities as the system will be based on potential/talent rather than just examination grades. In addition, there may also be more private universities available.’

The second key factor will be the development of regional centres of educational excellence. High-quality establishments already exist, but they tend to draw students from their local markets. Ambitious students study either locally or in the West, with few considering study in other countries in the region.

Television and Internet chat will help to build relations between young Asians, but there is no substitute for the bonds that are created when people from different countries meet face to face and study together.

Dealing with China

How to deal with China is an issue for all countries in Asia, including China itself. The sheer size of the place, its 1.2 billion population and its diaspora make it impossible to ignore.

Chinese culture and thinking continues to have an impact on all countries in the region. Throughout the centuries, Japan adopted and adapted hugely from China – Japanese writing is based on the Chinese system, even though the languages are totally different. Countries sharing borders with China have felt the need to assert their own identity while developing a modus vivendi for living with such a huge neighbour.

Chinese emigrants have established themselves throughout the region, often achieving great success in business and arousing local envy in the process. So-called ‘Overseas Chinese’ number some 57 million worldwide, with an estimated 53 million of them in Asia Pacific, according to John Naisbitt in Megatrends Asia.

Since the beginning of recorded history, China has been a massive presence in the Asia Pacific region, a country with a manifest belief in its status as ‘the Middle Kingdom’. As the century draws to a close, China has emerged from years of turmoil and hardship, and is looking forward to taking its place among the wealthy superpowers. ‘Deng Xiao Ping created the blueprint of a brilliant future for Chinese people. The next millennium will be a great era for China, a continuation of the new future that has been created,’ says Sharon Lee, of DY&R Shanghai.

China’s pride and ambition have far-reaching implications for the Asian region, and indeed for the Chinese themselves. Being virtually isolated for much of the twentieth century has limited the impact of China’s vast population on the rest of the world, but China has increasingly opened up with the reforms masterminded by Deng.

It used to be said that if all the people in China jumped up and down at the same time, the world would shake. Probably not literally true, but it’s the sort of thought that naturally comes to mind when contemplating a population of 1.2 billion people, most of whom currently don’t travel, don’t own cars, don’t have central heating or air conditioning, don’t have a telephone or life insurance policies, etc. But relatively few of those 1.2 billion potential customers live within geographical or financial reach of consumer heaven; for the moment that privilege is enjoyed far more by the 100 million or so urban dwellers along the coast. During the first decades of its existence, the People’s Republic of China tended to exert its will by military means. The new economically liberal China being guided by President Jiang Zemin is finding a very effective lever in its economic power and the prospect of granting or denying access to China’s vast and potentially lucrative market.

Three of Asia Pacific’s great success stories are Chinese: Singapore, Hong Kong and the island of Taiwan, which the People’s Republic officially regards as a renegade province. As China’s economy grows and opens, the links between them will strengthen, forecasts DY&R Taiwan: ‘Following an improved relationship with China, “The Great China Economic Circles” will gradually take shape.’

The rise of these Chinese economies, and the prosperity of overseas Chinese, is likely to raise some serious questions in non-Chinese countries of the region, particularly with regard to their Chinese immigrant minorities.

In Indonesia, social tension always risks spilling over into anti-Chinese sentiment and even blood-letting. As many as 500,000 people were suspected of Communist sympathies and killed in the coup that brought Suharto to power in 1965, and anti-Chinese sentiment has been evident in Indonesia’s latest troubles.⁴ In neighbouring Malaysia, the government is mindful of local resentment. It regards the very large Chinese community – about 32 per cent of the population – as economically advantaged and has implemented a pro-Malay affirmative action programme for the last twenty years.⁵

In future, will a powerful and prosperous China continue to stand by if its overseas cousins are persecuted for being Chinese? Will the huge and pervasive influence of China prompt non-Chinese (e.g., Malays in Malaysia) to assert their own culture and identity more vigorously? Will China be seen as a welcome Asian alternative to Americanization/Westernization? Or will Asians look even more to the West to counterbalance Chinese influence?