Читать книгу Next: A Vision of Our Lives in the Future - Marian Salzman - Страница 8

Just twenty years ago, most of us worked in offices without PCs, fax machines and voicemail. Our homes were not equipped with VCRs; our phones were not equipped with Caller ID. Many of us would have scoffed at the notion that computer technology would fundamentally alter the way we live and work in just two decades’ time. And now, with the new millennium upon us, we are taking a peek into the future, imagining how our world will change in the next twenty years.

One of the terms that has emerged in the past couple of years is ‘premillennial tension’. In the Western world, the general population’s anticipation of the year 2000 (or 2001, in the case of sticklers for detail) is tempered with concern, even fear. James Baldwin wrote, ‘Most of us are about as eager to be changed as we were to be born, and go through our changes in a similar state of shock.’ We know there will be changes in the coming years, but we don’t know what exactly they’ll be – or how dramatic their impact. The result: an intensified search for security.

Trust No One

A key reason we’ve become so demanding as consumers is that we no longer trust businesses to look out for our best interests. This attitude has been honed by years of being lied to and misled – not just by ‘big business’, but by government leaders, celebrities and just about everyone else in the media spotlight. In our travels across Europe, we spoke with citizens who are no longer willing to tolerate corruption in any form. Whether the offence be tax evasion, money laundering, bribes, undue influence or any other such crime, Europeans are now demanding that justice be served. The result has been the toppling of such high-visibility people as NATO General Secretary Willy Claes, Norwegian Central Bank Governor Torstein Moland and Alcatel Alsthom CEO Pierre Suard. One of the forces contributing to this ‘shakedown’ is increased access to information. Whether from the Internet, cable or satellite television, or independent ’zines, today’s consumers simply have more access to breaking news than in the past, as well as an increased ability to pursue stories of interest.

Fear

One result of having weathered scandal after scandal is that we’ve grown more cynical. We’re wiser to the ploys of politicos, preachers, priests, teachers and, yes, advertisers and marketers. We’re bombarded with infinitely more messages than we were a dozen years ago. We’re worried about our futures, our countries, our jobs, our cities and villages, our schools and violence down the street and overseas. And we’re anxious about what the millennium holds.

Adding to the collective fears of new consumers in Europe is the uncertainty surrounding both the European Union and increased globalization. With regard to the EU, many citizens are disturbed by the realization that belonging to the EU will require their national governing bodies to relinquish a certain amount of control. Denmark, for instance, experienced such a situation first-hand when the EU required that the country adopt France’s less-stringent rules regarding the use of preservatives in baby food. Understandably, many Danes were distraught to see bureaucrats in faraway Brussels dictate what can be put into food for their children. Other small countries are similarly concerned that they will lose their autonomy and simply be swallowed by the big European crowd.

With the future uncertain, we don’t know where to turn to find answers to the big questions in our lives – like where we should bring up our kids – and to smaller questions – like which brand of soup we should choose. We’re looking for things we can hold on to. Things we can trust. We’re looking for relationships with brands, not just products to buy. To assuage these concerns, consumers are seeking long-term product/service ‘partners’ that will help them to survive and thrive both professionally and personally. Whether peddling instant breakfasts or computer software, the obvious challenge for marketers is to earn a place within the consumer’s trusted brand set. What criteria do consumers use to evaluate prospective partners? Most look for three things: managerial vision (Does this company know where the world is heading? How their products/services need to be reinvented?); marketplace integrity (customer support, solid warranties); and an in-depth understanding of ‘my’ needs and desires.

One of the interesting dichotomies we see in the new consumers is their simultaneous embrace of novelty and fear of change that is too rapid. They want everything to be smaller, better, faster – but only if it fits comfortably within the world they’re used to. They place an enormous value on physical and emotional safety, and covet ‘classic’ products they can trust.

Laurence Bernstein, a colleague of Marian’s, described how he believes premillennial tension is affecting people in his part of the world: ‘The most significant trend in Canada right now is a profound change in the Canadian world view, moving people from a society with a therapeutic perspective (“We can do it now because everything can be fixed”) to a society driven by a prophylactic sense of caution (“Whatever we do now, we must be careful because we may not be able to fix it in the future.”)’ Bernstein contends that this shift ‘is evident in almost every aspect of life and can be viewed as the force behind such social phenomena as environmental concern (people actually recycling), the anti-smoking campaign, etc.’

People in many parts of the world are undergoing a similar shift from a therapeutic to a prophylactic perspective. As we attempt to take advantage of the benefits of new technologies and other conveniences, we remain acutely aware of the potential pitfalls. And, in a world travelling at hyperspeed, it’s a brave (or delusional) person who never once has questioned whether he or she is going to be able to keep up.