Читать книгу Next: A Vision of Our Lives in the Future - Marian Salzman - Страница 18

How long will the United States continue to drive trends around the world? Laurence Bernstein of Y&R Toronto doesn’t see this changing anytime soon: ‘Unless the next stage of the development of the European Community is a cultural unification – which is unlikely given traditional language and cultural differences – major trends will probably continue to emanate from the US,’ he says. ‘It takes a monumental, culturally homogeneous society to lead deep-seated trends (ideas and fads can come from anywhere; trends tend to rise up from the essence of the people). Asian developing countries, some of which may have the size and cultural strength needed to be leaders, are currently too focused on American values to explore themselves and develop their own trends in the near to mid-term. Furthermore, until such time as the American stranglehold on the media is replaced, it is hard to see how non-American cultural values will permeate the world.’

Lucinda Sherborne, senior planner at Y&R Auckland, has a different perspective on the situation: ‘The next few years will continue to see key lifestyle trends being filtered out of the UK and the US,’ she says. ‘However, we see these trends and the uptake of these trends speeding up as the world gets smaller and smaller due to increasing effectiveness of technology and the breakdown of global boundaries. The increasing ease of travel, immigration, technology, the Internet and mass media communications will drive these trends, also providing different channels for different ones. I believe the opening up of the world will also allow other countries to generate trends, possibly bypassing traditional trendsetting countries.’

We, too, believe that we’ll see an increase in the influence of trendsetters from other countries in coming years. The Internet will have a big hand in this. The simple fact is that as the world grows ever more interconnected, the influence of any one sector will be felt more readily in other sectors. This global interconnectedness levels the playing field in many respects, because it affords those outside today’s trend centres access to a broader forum.

One of Marian’s colleagues, a Colombian based in Cali, sent Marian a note recently that said, ‘Trends develop more and more in less commercial economies where newness is creative expression versus a reaction to a new product that enters the marketplace with a large budget.’ She pointed to student enclaves and market towns as two likely enclaves for trendsetting next.

We’re already seeing shifts in centres of cultural influence around the globe as baby boomers have regained their position at front and centre (edging out those upstart media darlings, the Xers). They brought with them a renewed emphasis on the biggest cities, the cultural centres. Herewith are our predictions for trend centres next, those cities that will dictate what we wear, watch and listen to in the decade to come.

Destination Next: Gemütlich Places/Global Villages

Just as cosier, genuine people are today more desirable than those who are arrogant or aloof (think Elton John and Chelsea Clinton vs Earl Spencer and Kate Moss), so, too, are cosier, genuine places more desirable. They embody gemütlich, a German term that conveys a combination of all that’s hospitable, homey and sane. Antwerp, a mini-Paris with such designers as Dries Van Noten, is in; Brussels is out. Capetown is in; Johannesburg is out. Of all such places, those that are global villages are trendiest, because they afford the ultimate combination of cosy lifestyle against a backdrop of blended world cultures.

In the West, two gemütlich cities, both global villages, are Amsterdam and San Francisco. Interestingly, these are also the digital capitals of Europe and North America, respectively. San Francisco has long been a melting pot of alternative lifestyles and creative expression; in the past decade, it’s also emerged as a centre of digital creativity. Across the Atlantic, thanks to the Channel Tunnel, IT hot-shots and Web designers can ply their trade in London during the week, then hop on a train to Amsterdam on Friday evening and enjoy a weekend of laid-back vice and virtue. Recreational drug use and daring parties all within easy walking or bicycling distance, no language problems, prices for every pocket, no pretensions – just come as you are and do your own thing.

As the world becomes increasingly wired, the cybersavvy duo of Amsterdam and San Francisco will command an even greater share of the spotlight. Expect gemütlich positioning – cosy marketing – to be the successful positioning for products ranging from consumer electronics to home meal replacements or remote banking.

Destination Next: Gateways

Berlin and Prague, gateways east, are very much global villages next. Though they belong to Xers, these cities bear the mark of older generations, who, as elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe, preserved traditions in the face of cultural oppression. Prague was the setting of the 1989 Velvet Revolution, the romantic transition that restored democracy to Soviet-controlled Czechoslovakia. It was also home to a hipper, rock music-influenced counterculture that venerated anarchy and produced playwright-as-president Vaclav Havel. The most untrendy aspect of modern Prague is American expatriate culture, with its new-style commercialism. While the first post-revolution invasion brought art-seeking, antimaterialistic young Yanks, Prague now is global in the truest sense, down to its multiplex cinemas. And yet the city sustains a quirky balance; its ancient culture co-exists, even blends, with the commercial culture of perpetual newness, a strong wind that blows across Central Europe.

Back in the heart of Germany and the heart of Europe, Berlin has been there before (think Christopher Isherwood and Cabaret). It has everything – fine buildings, huge public spaces, a romantic/tragic past, more than a hint of lowlife – it is the gateway to the East or West (depending on where you’re coming from), and now the nation has decided to make it the crowning glory of a country reunited at such cost. The former Eastern Bloc countries still tend to see Germany as their natural partner in the West, which makes Berlin a natural for all those eager easterners keen to brush up on their German. And Sony’s decision to build anew film centre in the new city centre is certain to be a magnet for trend leaders. On top of that, Berlin’s ‘love parades’ are an attraction, sometimes pulling in more than a million people. The message: love, peace, happiness. Drugs such as ecstasy are an important part of the scene.

The most threatening cloud on Germany’s horizon is the rise of the new right (neo-Nazis), whose surprisingly strong showing in the last election reflects the unrest of a populace increasingly dissatisfied with the byproducts of their new democratic order: namely, the record levels of unemployment that result when a state-controlled industrial economy enters the free market. The new enemy: everyone not German (all foreigners replace the Jews as the neo-Nazi target).

Destination Next: Music Meccas

Because innovative musicians find a following in places that support creativity, we look to music meccas for signs of what’s next. Chicago’s Wicker Park boasts a music scene that includes Liz Phair, Urge Overkill and Veruca Salt. Clubs and studios in this once-downtrodden neighbourhood thrive alongside such megalabels as Drag City, Touch and Go and Wax Trax. In England, the small port city of Bristol is the birthplace of three influential bands: Massive Attack, Tricky and Portishead. It was Portishead, creator of ‘trip-hop’, that landed Bristol on the places-to-watch list. (Trip-hop, an underground dance style, draws on reggae sounds and incorporates torch singing and even nostalgic film scores.)

Destination Next: Port Cities

Sydney has long been the trendsetter capital of Australia, but its role as Olympic host in the year 2000 will ensure its influence is felt far beyond those shores. Increased tourism means more ‘messengers’ will visit Sydney, returning home with a catalogue of experiences from a city in which styles are set by the gay community, a highly educated creative community and ‘new money’ entrepreneurs. Other ports to watch: Genoa, Marseilles, Rotterdam and Hamburg. The latter two are among the edgiest, each with a noteworthy fashion and music scene.

Destination Next: Cities with an Edge

For hardier souls who like their trends a little edgier, there are alternatives: most notably, Moscow/St Petersburg and Naples.

Moscow/St Petersburg In a Europe where everything is coming together, Russia will give adventurous Europeans the chance to experience something very different – an advanced, industrialized European country living in the raw, close to the edge. As Zoya Ivanova, account executive at Y&R Europe, Moscow Representation, sees it, life in Russia will get harder but more interesting as people fight with their brains rather than guns. This will be a thrilling and disturbing experience for cosseted young Europeans – far more exotic than trips to more distant destinations. It will also give them some new angles on things they take for granted.

Naples For adventurous Europeans who can’t face the chill of Russia, Naples offers the experience of managing chaos under azure skies. Without the tourist hordes and self-consciousness of many Italian cities, Naples will be the place to observe old Italy head-to-head with the twenty-first century – rapier-sharp native wit and invention devising strategies to handle high-tech and regulations. Marco Lombardi, planning director at Y&R Italia Milan, notes that Naples is today a dramatization of Italy’s good qualities and faults: ‘When you are there, you can feel in the air a positive tension, a mood of statu nascenti, which is best expressed through the music of the people coming from centri sociali (self-managed young communities).’

Destination Next: New Asian Hubs

After centuries of bigger-is-better nationalism around the world, it’s easy to forget that some of the most influential and successful human enterprises have not been huge countries, but rather city states – Athens, Florence, Venice to name but three from history. In Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore have proved the value of small concentrated units, increasingly rivalling each other as regional hubs – meta-capitals, acting as magnets both for their hinterland and for overseas entrepreneurs looking to do business in the region.

The scene is set for other influential hubs to emerge. Shanghai already has a glorious heritage from its pre-revolutionary days and will act as a focus for talent to rival Hong Kong and Guangzhou. In a recent America Online interview, Pete Engardio, a Business Week staffer covering the region, said that China’s coastal provinces are so economically dynamic that they could absorb about five cities like Hong Kong, although Hong Kong is likely to retain the unique advantages of a legal system, a free press and a corruption-free society.

Meanwhile, emerging nations such as Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam are jockeying for position in the regional and international community. Malaysia, which aims to oust Singapore as the cornerstone of South-east Asia, is busy developing a vast high-tech enterprise zone, the Multimedia Super Corridor, with the aim of leap-frogging Malaysia into the Information Age. Vietnam is focusing less on technology and more on its unique cultural heritage. DY&R’s country development manager predicts great things for Vietnamese artists and creators, both in the field of plastic arts and in TV and advertising, and foresees a vogue based on Vietnam’s traditional womenswear: ‘Western women will start to wear the Vietnamese national dress, the “ao dai”, or Western fashion designers will adapt it for Western women to wear. The dress is too feminine, too “sexy” for designers to pass up.’