Читать книгу Applied Mergers and Acquisitions - Robert F. Bruner - Страница 76

A variant on the behavioral theme is the role of mass behavior that produces market bubbles, crashes, and fads. Kelly (1994) likened market movements to swarms of bees and flocks of geese. Others have sought to apply chaos theory to explaining the unpredictable movements in the market; see Gleick (1998). Robert Shiller (1998) discusses fads in financial markets as motive for takeover. He cites psychological literature on group behavior and gambling as parallels to merger fads. A variation on this point is the “I don’t want to be left out” factor for companies who are surrounded by acquisitive competitors. Investment bankers tell interesting anecdotes about “deal frenzy,” a kind of psychological momentum to get a deal done—on almost any terms—after an executive has been working toward the deal for some period of time. Toxvaerd (2002) models merger waves as the result of the attempt by managers to improve the strategic positions of their firms through preemption in the competition for scarce targets. The competitors would prefer to delay and retain the option to acquire. But in constant reference to their competitors, they all snap into action as the result of an industry shock or the release of some decisive bit of information: this produces a stampede to acquire, a type of rational frenzy.

The practical person will find it hard to know what to do with the mania explanation. Chapters 30 and 31 emphasize the influence of psychological effects on M&A outcomes. Our understanding in this area is still in its infancy. Still, the practitioner seeking to understand M&A activity should ask at least two questions:

1 Does the market, my industry, or my firm seem in the grip of “deal frenzy”?

2 What is the tendency of the “herd” in my industry with respect to M&A? What is the “lead steer” doing?

Both of these questions invite, at best, qualitative answers. Generally, the size of acquisition premiums relative to historical averages will give some sense of whether the deal flow is hot or cold. A close following of speeches, interviews, scuttlebutt, and, above all, M&A actions is the grist from which answers to these questions will be made.