Читать книгу Applied Mergers and Acquisitions - Robert F. Bruner - Страница 88

Though at first glance the macroeconomic perspective would seem to offer a uselessly high level of abstraction, in fact the themes identified in this chapter influence virtually everything else in an effort to understand M&A activity and conduct an acquisition search. A checklist of measures of the state of the economy would include these 12 measures:

1 Unemployment rate and factory capacity utilization rate. These signal activity levels in the economy, sector, and industry. High capacity utilization can signal increased capital spending. Low unemployment can signal upward pressure on wages.

2 Government fiscal policy: whether stimulative or not. Government spending should be scrutinized carefully for favored sectors and industries, and generally for political goals that would build up some segments of the economy at the expense of others. Sustained deficits over time are associated with increased government borrowing, and the crowding out of corporate investment through higher interest rates.

3 Central bank monetary policy: expansionary or contractionist. The type of policy will influence interest rates, inflation expectations, exchange rates, business investment, and trading volumes in the capital markets.

4 Inflation rate. High rates can destabilize competition and increase uncertainty in business planning.

5 Interest rates, both for the government and corporations. These directly affect valuations of target firms.

6 Exchange rates. Volatility in these can destabilize competition and deeply affect prices and costs.

7 Trade balance. Sustained imbalances can affect the cost of funds, availability of capital, and prices and costs.

8 Consumer optimism. This is strongly correlated with demand for consumer goods and durables and should strongly influence forecast assumptions regarding corporate revenue growth.

9 Gross domestic product, especially its growth rate. The rate of macroeconomic expansion is perhaps the single most influential driver of corporate investment decisions. To the extent possible, one should try to disaggregate growth by sectors and/or industries.

10 Current position in macroeconomic cycle. Publications by the U.S. government afford a variety of indicators for tracking growth of the economy. Similar lists of economic indicators are followed in other countries, and by economic interest groups such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In typical practice, each group of indicators (leading, coincident, and lagging) is combined to form an index of economic performance. Judgments about current and future growth are derived from an assessment of the index trends.

The analyst of macroeconomic themes uses data on these and other measures to identify current and prospective trends that because of their direction and magnitude are particularly relevant for the acquirer’s acquisition strategy. The strategic force of strong consumer demand leads to the theme of increased capital spending. Heavy capital expenditures imply a large financing need. One way to finance capital expansion is by combining cash-rich and cash-poor firms. A second example would be a strengthening currency that triggers increases in imported goods leading to the theme of robust business revenues in shipping and transportation. The possibilities for identifying themes through macroeconomic analysis are numerous.