Читать книгу Applied Mergers and Acquisitions - Robert F. Bruner - Страница 106

One of the most reliable findings about M&A activity in the U.S. is the strong relationship between deal doing and high stock and bond prices. In the cross-border world, a strong relationship also exists though it is complicated by the fact that it is driven by comparative differences between two local financial markets. Feliciano and Lipsey (2002) found that acquisitions of U.S. firms by foreign firms decline with high U.S. stock prices, high industry profitability, and high industry growth, and increase with high U.S. interest rates, high U.S. growth rates, and high foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. Vasconcellos et al. (1990) found that foreign firms increase their acquisitions in the United States when U.S. economic conditions are favorable compared to the foreign country, interest rates are high in the foreign country compared to the United States, and the dollar is weak relative to the foreign currency. Gonzalez, Vasconcellos, and Kish (1998) found that undervalued U.S. companies were more likely to be targets of acquisition by foreign companies.

Closely related to capital market conditions are currency market conditions. Variation in exchange rates can render one country’s firms cheaper or dearer to buyers from another country. But conventional economic analysis would reject this, arguing that in an integrated global market, real rates of return on assets will be equal across countries, preventing profitable arbitrage on the basis of currency exchange rate variations. Froot and Stein (1991) linked currency changes to the relative wealth of buyers to argue, in effect, that countries with deep financial pockets because of strong currencies will tend to originate foreign direct investment. They find a strong relationship between exchange rate movements and FDI. Harris and Ravenscraft (1991) found a strong relationship between exchange rate movements and cross-border acquisition announcement effects. Vasconcellos and Kish (1998) reported a strong relationship between acquisition activity and exchange rate movements. Vasconcellos, Madura, and Kish (1990) concluded, “In the final analysis, the long-run outlook on the dollar is the critical factor in foreign acquisition of or by U.S. firms.” (Page 184)