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APPENDIX 4.3 Listening for Turbulence as Communicated through Capital Markets

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If markets tell stories about the actual inner condition and prospects of firms, analysts should extend their attention to capital markets. In contrast to product markets, these markets are relatively more transparent about telling us what they see in firms. Moreover, listening to capital markets employs another precept, stay close to investors. By betting their wealth in tough-minded ways each day, investors impound news and expectations about firms into market prices. If, as the bulk of academic research suggests, markets are efficient on average and over time, then one can trust the market to distill what is known about firms and their outlooks into securities prices. Viewed broadly, capital markets offered three arenas from which to derive themes for top-down acquisition tracking: equity markets, debt markets, and the various markets for derivative securities.

Applied Mergers and Acquisitions

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