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Chapter 5

Phuket

Ibrahim gathered his courage and called Ambassador Panday. “Are you free for lunch?”

Panday readily accepted, pleased that Ibrahim wanted to consult him. He didn’t know Ibrahim well, but he was impressed by the young man’s intelligence and drive.

“Certainly. Meet you in the hotel dining room?”

“How about the Rasta Café across the street? I think our conversation would be more private there.”

“I guess that’s all right,” Panday replied, suddenly wary of getting entangled in some kind of compromising activity. He would of course refuse to take part in anything nefarious. He would instantly excuse himself from the table if the circumstances demanded it. He had done so before and was always happy with those decisions in retrospect. But even knowing about an illegal scheme could create unpleasant responsibilities and complications. And it would certainly change his impression of Ibrahim.

The Rasta Café lunch was a mediocre collection of local dishes, not nearly as satisfying as the food in the Casa Blanca dining room, but ample in quantity. Ibrahim began the serious conversation by discussing the urgency of the climate change threat:

“Both our governments recognize that we are facing a genuine threat to our very existence. The sudden disintegration of the rest of the Antarctic Ross Ice Shelf or the more rapid depletion of Greenland’s glaciers, either individually or together, could easily cause the near-term destruction of generations of effort by our people to build healthy, economically viable lives.

“The physical and economic chaos as the seas rise will soon undermine the entire social fabric of our communities, washing away governments as surely as it washes away coastal communities and infrastructure. Immediate climate intervention of the kind Dr. Hartquist advocated is not only desirable but essential to our nations’ survival.

“Unfortunately, the UN Secretariat and Paris Accords implementation meetings haven’t seriously considered SRM or any other geoengineering concept. The slow processes of international consensus building mean that even if AOSIS succeeded in adding SRM to the UN agenda immediately, the outcome would be distant and uncertain. At best, it would be several years before we could expect any action. And then it would likely be a watered-down, timid, half-hearted effort.”

Having laid the groundwork, Ibrahim paused before explaining his idea. “I’d like you to keep the rest of this conversation confidential, whether you join forces with me or not. Is that agreeable?”

Panday, his appetite whetted for the rest of the story, signaled his agreement. It wouldn’t be the first time he kept a secret, and so far, he did not see anything criminal in the offing.

Ibrahim continued with the explanation of his concept.

From a technical engineering standpoint, creating a stratospheric veil of reflective chemicals over the Arctic for SRM is neither very challenging nor very costly. It doesn’t take massive resources. A veil project is no more difficult or expensive than some of the weather modification programs that various countries already operate. The failure of the UN to consider such a program reflects two realities:

First, not enough scientific data exists to ensure good results or avoid potential bad outcomes. That’s a “chicken and egg” problem since the only way to get valid data is to run some experiments in the real world. To create an effective veil, the chemicals must be released into the upper tropospheric margin, technically known as the tropopause—a very thin layer separating nearly all of earth’s atmosphere from the stratosphere and the true emptiness of space, about seventy thousand feet above earth’s surface.

Scientists are still learning how the troposphere behaves. We do know that the temperature and gravitational balance between the warmth of earth’s lower atmosphere and the near-absolute zero of outer space minimizes convection currents that would carry the chemicals either upward into outer space or downward to the earth’s surface. But at this point we have no precise data on how long any released chemical compound would stay in the tropopause or how it would react with ozone, methane, carbon dioxide, and other substances also present in the atmosphere.

Second, there is strong emotional and political opposition from both the left and the right to the idea of ‘reengineering the planet,’ as if we have not irreversibly transformed the planet with our artificial, technologically-based agriculture, fishing equipment and techniques, and modern communications, manufacturing, and transport systems.

There are theoretical dangers from an experimental SRM project. The first tests might have a far more dramatic effect than predicted. Ultimately worse, the adverse effects might initially appear minimal, but later turn out to be much greater. Before the miscalculation became evident, the experimenters might decide to increase the quantities of chemicals used, only to discover later that the longer-term effects were far more severe than anticipated.

For AOSIS States that are drowning, however, these risks are outweighed by the certainty that inaction will bring destruction. If this small project has only marginal impact, as we would hope, the experiment will still provide invaluable data and visibility to the concept.

My argument is that we, as representatives of our endangered States, should begin an effort in secret, without seeking or obtaining approval from any international institution, to create an experimental veil. I am hopeful that we can find a few other states that will cooperate and make the project feasible.

Ibrahim paused to gauge Panday’s reaction, which was instantly clear. Panday’s face revealed the depth of his discomfort. The suggestion of acting in secret without international approval contradicted the framework of his whole life’s work, just as acutely as if Ibrahim had actually suggested they start smuggling illicit drugs or weapons.

To himself, Panday said, Doing anything without a high degree of international consensus is dangerous, especially for small states, who are fortunate even to have seats at the table in the UN and other organizations. Besides, the idea is completely impractical. We’ll never get anyone to provide the financial resources or the location from which to run this “modest experiment.” The whole concept verges on absurdity.

Being a diplomat, what Panday said to Ibrahim was more nuanced. “I share your frustration, Ibrahim, but aside from the fundamental danger to small states of undermining the rule of law and international order, it’s impractical. Neither your country nor mine even begins to have the financial resources, the technical expertise, or the physical facilities to initiate such a project. Why are you even talking to me about this idea?”

Ibrahim seized the opportunity to give a positive answer. “You are right, of course. I didn’t come to you to get financial or territorial resources from your government. What I want is your help to find the necessary resources from others. If you are willing to help, I think it’s possible we can find what we need. But I need your knowledge, experience, and support to proceed.”

Intrigued by the idea, relieved that Ibrahim was not asking for financial or other material support, and flattered to have his capabilities appreciated, Panday leaned back in his chair and took a sip of water, gathering his thoughts.

I need to analyze this proposal from several angles, he mused. The chances of this extraordinary scheme succeeding, or even getting off the ground, are exceedingly small. But if it did, it would be a dramatic step forward in protecting my country, my children and grandchildren, and the entire world.

If it fails to get the necessary resources, as is almost certainly the case, I’m no worse off for having tried. At least I can say to myself and report to my government and my children that I explored this possibility to address our fundamental problem of survival.

Cementing a working relationship with Ibrahim, who will clearly be a force in AOSIS and the UN for many years to come, can only be good for Trinidad & Tobago. If we can recruit others to help us, that would make me more comfortable. It may even provide the occasion to build some new diplomatic relationships.

He turned to Ibrahim. “I’ll need to think about whether this is a rational gamble for me and my country. Who else would you propose to help us? And where would the money and physical resources come from?”

Ibrahim was unwilling to share all his speculations without a clear commitment from Panday. “I don’t have answers to your second question. I think we need to feel our way forward, identifying possibilities and probing for support. If you are agreeable, I suggest the next step might be to recruit Ambassador Doyal into our circle.”

Panday was pleased to discern Ibrahim’s realism, though a little apprehensive about being characterized as part of Ibrahim’s “circle” at this stage. He still had reservations. But he reassured himself, At least Ibrahim realizes that carefully exploring the possibilities for this wild idea is not the same thing as rushing headlong into it. “Circle” sounds too much like a conspiracy to me. I’ll need to make sure I have opportunities to call a halt if it seems to be getting too dangerous.

“Do you know Doyal?” Panday asked.

“Not well. But Mauritius is as endangered as our countries, and he has lots of connections around the world. I think he would be valuable to the effort.”

“Yes, he has contacts everywhere,” Panday replied. “but you should be aware that he has great ambitions, perhaps UNESCO Director-General or Deputy Foreign Minister back home. He’s unlikely to risk those possibilities to promote your unorthodox scheme.”

“That’s why I need your help,” Ibrahim responded. “Can we meet with him to discuss this matter at dinner this evening? Would you like to invite him, or should I?”

Panday saw through Ibrahim’s effort to tie him into advocating the project. “I think you should call him. I’m not entirely committed yet myself.”

“That’s fine. I’ll propose 7 p.m. at Lotus, around the corner.”

Panday nodded, still uncomfortable. They finished the last of their tea, paid for lunch, and ambled back to their hotel chatting about inconsequential matters and enjoying the pleasant sunny weather and the panorama of green hills, white beaches, and blue-green ocean waters.