Читать книгу The Plot to Cool the Planet - Sam Bleicher - Страница 12

Chapter 7

Phuket

Ibrahim rushed back to his room and telephoned Wang Shu. It was a short, businesslike conversation.

“Good afternoon, Wang. This is Ibrahim. I trust you are finding the AOSIS meeting worth attending.

“I’d like you to meet informally with Ambassadors Panday and Doyal and me to discuss a special project we are hoping to get started, with Singapore’s help. Can you meet with us some time tomorrow?”

“I would be happy to meet with those distinguished Ambassadors,” Wang instinctively replied, recognizing the value of the opportunity.

“Excellent. Ambassador Doyal has a suite suitable for our discussion. Number 501 in the Casa Blanca Hotel. How about 11:00 am tomorrow?”

“That should be fine. See you there,” she replied, and quickly ended the call. Wang had many questions, but they could come later.

The meeting began with introductions and coffee. Wang deferentially acknowledged the honor of meeting the two senior Ambassadors. They reciprocated the kind words, expressing their pleasure that she was willing to meet with them on a Sunday morning.

The substantive conversation opened with a request from Ibrahim that the discussion stay completely confidential, whether she agreed with or approved of what the three were about to reveal, or not. Wang found it an unusual request to precede an informal discussion. She responded cautiously, but lightly, “I guess if it’s not nuclear war or a program to accelerate global warming and rising seas, I can keep a secret for as long as you can. That will have to do.”

Ibrahim glanced at his colleagues to gauge their reactions, then continued, “Thank you. We trust your word. You heard Dr. Hartquist’s speech at the AOSIS Conference last year, so you understand what our countries and the world are facing. The difference is that our countries are desperate. We’re already the drowning man that Dr. Hartquist has described in her speeches and writings. If we don’t begin taking real, physical action now, our lands and people may all may be irreversibly lost before the end of the decade.

“We believe Dr. Hartquist gave us the only possible answer: physical intervention in the earth’s climate system now to delay the potential for disruptive, catastrophic climate changes. We believe that the initiation of an SRM project creating a chemical veil in the tropopause is essential and urgent. We are aware of the environmental and political risks, and we will proceed as carefully as possible. But we cannot wait to obtain an international consensus, which may never emerge.

“The cost of the project is small by comparison to defense expenditures around the world, but our three developing countries cannot afford the ongoing expenses of this kind of operation. Equally important, we could not spend such sums, which are large compared to our national budgets, without a public discussion in our parliaments. That would be the death of the entire effort. We need the help of Singapore, and your assistance to get that help.”

Wang Shu sat up in her chair, her almond eyes wide. “Are you saying you would conduct this whole project in secret? Is that even possible? Won’t creating a veil require constant flights into the troposphere? What happens when the US, or China or Russia, discovers unknown planes buzzing around the troposphere, releasing unknown substances?”

As quickly as Wang asked these questions, she realized there could be no satisfactory answers. Ibrahim offered a sanguine hope: “I expect that a small additional number of commercial aircraft flying from a remote location at a very high altitude will simply be ignored by military personnel focused on instantaneous response to a massive surprise attack. They’ll just be hidden in plain sight,” he suggested.

Wang appeared doubtful.

Panday joined in gently, seeking to calm her fears. “We fully understand the risk you have identified so perceptively, but our islands are drowning right now. As you know, AOSIS has tried publicly and vigorously to get action through the standard international processes, without success. We can’t even get a small-scale international research program underway. If we try to proceed publicly, we’ll be pushed by the opponents right back to the Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties, which means paralysis.”

Wang Shu remained profoundly skeptical, but she wanted to know more before saying anything. “How much money are you talking about?”

Ibrahim replied, “We think no more than US$10 billion over the first three years, which would get the project far enough along to have useful data to show. We hope it will provide some degree of cooling as well. Professor Feith wrote a decade ago that he thought US $3 billion would be enough, but an upward adjustment for inflation and some contingency reserve would be prudent.

“We can promise you that we will work with you to disguise the sources of the money. Singapore won’t be the only contributor, though we expect it would be the largest. We’ll set up appropriately anonymous shell entities to give, receive, and spend the project money. We personally pledge our best efforts to ensure that the arrangements preserve Singapore’s deniability. Our own careers are on the line as well if this effort becomes public prematurely.”

Wang stopped to think, evaluating both the overall project’s diplomatic risks and possible mechanisms by which the transfer of funds could evade detection. She also considered whether she had legal or policy authority to make any commitment. The three “conspirators” held their breath in the silence. Wang’s answer could be the make-or-break moment for this fantasy.

Finally, she spoke. “I don’t have authority to make any financial commitment at all. My instructions for this meeting only address AOSIS policy matters that are coming up for a vote. I question whether my government would be willing to get wrapped up in this irregular venture at any price. But I can tell you this. I will recommend that Singapore either provide all the money or none. Singapore won’t want any financial partners.

“The more parties involved in this process, the greater the uncertainty whether other partners will all ante up their shares. Worse, the more partners, the greater the risk that we will all read about this ‘evil conspiracy’ in the New York Times, with names and dates and bank accounts. A secret widely shared rarely stays a secret…

“Speaking of which, who are the nonfinancial partners? Who will be providing the air bases and planes and scientists? I will need to know.”

Ibrahim started to explain that those answers would be worked out later after they had the money, but Panday cut him off.

“We cannot reveal the names of other parties we are approaching. They will be as interested in secrecy and deniability as you are. We can only say that the project will require the involvement of at least one State that has the logistic capability to conduct the missions, as well as the territorial character to camouflage them without arousing suspicions. We don’t believe Singapore can help on that score.

“The other party will be trusting us that the money will be forthcoming without knowing its origin. You will need to trust us that the mission will be handled professionally and without any side payments or other corruption. And this secrecy will help preserve Singapore’s deniability.”

Wang paused, absorbing the implications of Panday’s comments. She wondered whether the three had anyone else in mind at all. Then she faced Ibrahim directly and spoke with uncharacteristic intensity,

“Ibrahim, I have known you for several years, and I have always found you to keep your professional promises. If I become a party to this secret plot, I will be staking my entire career on your integrity, discretion, and judgment. It’s a risk I would be taking by even trying to persuade Singapore to participate.”

Wang took a breath, trying to retain her composure. “I’m eager to know a lot more, but maybe the less I know, the better. I hope your plan works, for your sake and the sake of humanity.

“Now if you will excuse me, I have another meeting soon. I’ll let you know as soon as I can whether Singapore’s involvement is even a possibility.”

Wang stood and bowed her head slightly toward each of them, avoiding the awkward possibility that one of them might refuse to touch a woman other than his wife, at least where others could see. She didn’t want to embarrass them or herself by offering to shake hands. She walked out of the room almost too hurriedly, without saying another word or waiting for any reply.

Ibrahim turned to his colleagues, hoping they were not terrified by the result of the conversation with Wang. “Well, we’ve taken the first step. Ms. Wang didn’t say no, and she left the distinct impression that she would consider the matter. I don’t think we could have hoped for anything more at this point.”

Panday and Doyal were relieved that the meeting ended without an outright refusal, an explosion of outrage, or a threat to expose the cabal. But at this moment they almost hoped that Singapore would say no and bring an end to their continuing anxieties.

Rather than wait for a response from Singapore, Ibrahim suggested they begin evaluating the AOSIS States to see who could handle the physical operation if the money were forthcoming.

Ibrahim outlined what he saw as the relevant parameters. “Only a few large Member States have small remote airbases from which to operate without immediate detection, and a functioning logistic capacity to acquire the necessary fuel and chemicals for the airbase. We want to avoid the necessity to create new, visible commercial and transportation channels.”

“If the operation is to be secret, basing it in a small, open State like Singapore is unworkable,” Doyal reiterated. “Singapore has more than enough military and logistic capacity, but its intensely watched commercial markets leave no way to hide the acquisition of the planes or materials, or disguise the flights. Cuba has the capabilities and remote areas that could more easily hide these activities.”

This time Panday nixed even speaking to Cuba. “Cuba is still afraid to do anything that would give the US Congress or the new President an excuse to end their fragile relationship. It’s one thing to provide funds secretly. I’m certain they would say no to continuing flights and the resulting risk of military retaliation. They might even feel it advantageous to tell the US about our project immediately.”

None of the other AOSIS Members fit the requirements very well. Doyal didn’t volunteer Mauritius, which would be marginally capable of meeting their requirements, and Panday and Ibrahim were sensitive enough not to ask.

The diplomats began evaluating friendly States outside AOSIS. The two best candidates appeared to be the Philippines and Indonesia. “Both countries have literally thousands of islands, habitable and uninhabited, that would be inundated in rising seas, so they should have an interest in helping,” Doyal noted.

“Moreover, these sprawling archipelagoes have dozens of major but largely uninhabited islands that could easily host a few flights a day from small, remote airfields. That would be the best chance of escaping the attention of US, Russian, and Chinese surveillance operations.”

Ibrahim ruled out The Philippines. “The government is too unpredictable. President-for-life Duterte’s erratic behavior and declining popularity could sink the whole project in an instant if he changed his mind, carelessly tweeted something, or let some oil company crony twist his arm—”

“That leaves only President Kartawijaya of Indonesia. Does anyone know Wijaya?” Panday interjected.

“I do,” answered Doyal, finally shedding his cloak of silence when the opportunity arose to show his unique value to the effort. “I helped him resolve some Asian Development Bank issues not too long ago. Indonesia needed some exceptions from the ADB rules for a loan it wanted. It succeeded with my help.

“The President’s an unusually open-minded and thoughtful person. Likes innovative ideas and real solutions to problems. If Singapore says yes, I will call him. I’m pretty sure Wijaya would take my call. But I can’t promise he would agree to help!”

The next day was Monday, and the four delegates returned to their second-week Conference tasks, going through the motions as the committees recommended various official resolutions calling for immediate international action. Most of these substantive resolutions were passed by the plenary session, but the delegates had no expectation they would be implemented.

The week passed slowly for Panday, Doyal, and Ibrahim. They felt the fate of their countries and their peoples hanging on Singapore’s response.

The Committee and Plenary sessions were particularly awkward for Ibrahim and Wang. He made sure their paths crossed at least once each day in the hallway outside the main meeting room, in the hope she might impart some hint of progress, or even merely what she was thinking. She smiled pleasantly and said hello but did not stop to say more.

The Conference adjourned Thursday at noon; still nothing. Panday, Ibrahim, and Doyal met in a small bar several blocks from the Phuket Convention Center. Panday immediately turned to the matter of overriding importance in each of their minds. “Well, Ibrahim my friend, do you think we have our answer from our new young friend? Or is the delay to be expected?”

Ibrahim tried to be optimistic. “I can’t imagine that she would consider silence a sufficient answer. I’m supposing the decision requires a personal conversation with someone at home. Maybe that can’t be handled from a distance. But I confess that with every passing day, my fear that we will not have a favorable answer increases. On reflection, she may not think it safe even to raise the subject with anyone at home or ever meet with us again.”

Doyal inquired more pointedly, “Has anyone spoken even a word with the esteemed Delegate?” Silence around the table. Ibrahim acknowledged they had said hello in the hallways in passing, but nothing more.

“Well then,” Panday concluded with obvious relief, “I guess we stand down until we’re satisfied we’ve learned what we need to know, one way or the other. No point in pursuing further steps without knowing if we have any money. We’ll talk again when we know more.”