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Chapter 6

Phuket

Doyal accepted Ibrahim’s invitation for dinner with him and Panday without hesitation. He liked and respected them both. Reinforcing connections with other AOSIS delegates was always worthwhile. Besides, he was looking for votes in UNESCO. And he was intrigued by Ibrahim’s call, which somehow seemed formal and premeditated, despite the short notice.

At this moment, global warming was a high priority for Doyal. Rising seas threatened both his country and his career, as he knew well. He had been Mauritius’ Delegate to the biennial meetings of the Conference of Parties under the UN Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change for over a decade before the 2015 Paris Conference, and he played an instrumental role in securing the adoption of the Paris Accords.

But saving his country required much more, especially given the damage done by the US withdrawal from the Accords in 2019. He was looking for innovative ideas to reverse the deteriorating political will to act.

At dinner, Ibrahim obtained Doyal’s commitment to secrecy, repeated the arguments for secret, unilateral action, and sketched the scheme he had presented to Panday. Doyal was more openly resistant than Panday. “Wouldn’t this secret SRM project be a violation of the UN Charter and general principles of international law?” he asked. “You can’t expect me to help you with anything that runs contrary to international law. Our small states exist in reliance on it.”

Ibrahim had already quickly researched the legal questions, and he offered his answers.

I appreciate your concerns. Let me respond to that question on several levels. I believe Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which recognizes “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence” justifies unilateral action in our situation. While Article 51 speaks to defense against an “armed attack,” this “inherent right” surely includes the right to act when the very existence of a group of states is being threatened by the increasingly destructive environmental behavior of the world’s advanced powers.

Many states are taking modest defensive steps unilaterally. For example, the Netherlands is building more sea walls to protect Amsterdam and other valuable coastal areas. No other state objects on legal grounds, even though the construction may have adverse impacts on breeding grounds for shared fisheries. And many countries conduct weather modification programs that inevitably affect other states without seeking any international approval or supervision, or even reporting the activities or results.

I concede that there are some international agreements and pronouncements that seem to point in the opposite direction. The 1977 Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques prohibits damaging climate manipulation for military or hostile purposes. Various International Court of Justice decisions and other pronouncements assert international legal liability for transboundary environmental harm. And the Conventions on ocean pollution provide an analogy to atmospheric pollution.

But the reality is that our people are the victims of violation of these concepts by others right now, and this action on our part would in fact be a form of remediation in response to the damage done by them.

“I see your point,” Doyal responded. He conceded to himself that Ibrahim’s legal argument was plausible as a theoretical matter. But he also knew that opponents of the project would vehemently disagree, arguing that unilaterally creating an SRM veil, whatever its purpose or goals, is an intentional invasion of their sovereignty that would justify their own unilateral action in response.

“So, forgetting the legal arguments, what makes you think you can find money or physical support for this effort? Our countries don’t have the resources. And what about our disregard for international due process and consensus? We’re not exactly Great Powers who can throw their weight around, thanks to their economic and military capabilities. Hardly a week goes by that we aren’t admonishing some Great Power for acting unilaterally in disregard of international rules and procedures.”

Panday remained silent, leaving Ibrahim to address this question as well. He had supported Ibrahim’s arguments on the desperate need for the project, but that was as far as he was willing to go at this point. He was not convinced about the legality of unilateral action. He was still reserving his decision on the viability of Ibrahim’s plan.

Ibrahim, fully aware that he alone must defend the rationale for this project, responded carefully to Doyal’s objection. “I don’t know if we can find the resources, but I believe we must try. Some AOSIS Members, and some other threatened States, have either the financial resources or the physical capabilities, or both, to implement this plan. It’s actually quite small-scale in the grand scheme of things, certainly less than $10 billion, involving about a dozen ordinary commercial planes, modified to carry out the mission. Some large countries spend that much on defense every month.

“The obstacle is political will, not resources. I share your commitments to consensus, law, and due process in international relations. It’s the only security for our tiny States. But the danger of irreversible climate change is too urgent to ignore. Dr. Hartquist explained the realities in her speech to the AOSIS Conference last year. That’s why I’m asking you and Panday to join me. I need the judgment and gravitas you two would bring to the effort to obtain the necessary resources.

“As I see it, our first task is to identify the right targets and generate the political willingness to try something real, to get beyond the hand-wringing and ineffectual warnings. The first step is to find the money, then the logistical base. Is there a better way to proceed?”

Ibrahim was trying not to sound inflexible. He really did welcome their insights, and he hoped to focus their thinking on specific next steps, rather than the feasibility of the whole effort.

Doyal had listened carefully to the arguments, weighing the merits of the idea in the abstract. His mind rapidly evaluated the risks and benefits to his country and to his own career.

Whatever the law, it would be dangerous to get entangled in a subversive conspiracy that could affect the entire world without some sort of international approval. The last thing Mauritius, and I personally, need is a scandal that involves bypassing all the established global mechanisms for transparency and consensus. Why would a diplomat willing to take such a step be an acceptable candidate for a high-ranking position in an international organization like UNESCO?

Nevertheless, he recognized that Ibrahim’s and Panday’s argument for urgent action was persuasive. They had all been present last year when Dr. Hartquist argued so passionately for immediate action, and her nefarious murder had added widespread notoriety and emotional depth to that advice.

To Ibrahim and Panday he said, “Successfully leading consensus-building efforts has been the hallmark of my career and Mauritius’s reputation. My involvement in this secret effort, even if successful, could permanently damage my credibility and my government’s if the facts ever emerged. I need to think over this proposal.”

Doyal remained deeply doubtful. His judgment was that their three small countries could not accomplish anything beyond talk. Ibrahim is too young to recognize the extremely low probability of success, he thought, and the unavoidable danger in having conspired to set up this secret, unauthorized project, whether or not it succeeds.

At the same time, working with them, and inevitably a few others if we can recruit them in the attempt, would have the political advantage of earning me some markers for future use. And if by chance the effort is productive, it could show the kind of bold leadership that would help propel me upward as a leadership candidate.

Through his participation in AOSIS, Doyal had learned a great deal about the theoretical research into climate intervention and SRM. He agreed that a chemical stratospheric veil was the only reversible geoengineering technique that could plausibly be undertaken by a small number of states acting unilaterally.

He also agreed with what Ibrahim described as the inherent “chicken-and-egg” dilemma: The most ideal quantities and types of chemicals for these purposes have not been determined, but as Dr. Hartquist’s articles and speeches explained, the general effect of various materials can be predicted. She believed existing knowledge is sufficient to minimize the risks of unanticipated and irreversible climate damage. She was convinced that humanity must begin large-scale experiments, leading directly to an operational program in the immediate future. Her metaphor of the drowning man was compelling. The combination of research and action in otherwise hopeless cases is what medical doctors have done for centuries.

Professor Feith, a climate expert at Stanford University, had also concluded that with a handful of planes, a base from which to fly, and the necessary materials, the learning process could begin. At the same time, it might in some small degree reduce the pace of global warming. Creating a planetary veil isn’t a fantasy like CCS (carbon capture and sequestration), which at best would require many billions in infrastructure investments to upgrade thousands of carbon-generating industrial facilities.

The consensus in the knowledgeable scientific community was that the only way to learn more is to begin seeding the tropopause with experimental levels of various candidate chemicals and measuring the effects. Any experiment entails the risk that well-intentioned but mistaken actions will do harm. But many island peoples are facing certain destruction from the current trajectory.

The practical obstacle was to find and mobilize sufficient resources to execute a coherent SRM program.

Setting aside these larger policy issues, the three diplomats proceeded to a discussion of the intrinsic risks of broaching the subject with representatives of other states.

Panday remained very nervous about the danger of involving more diplomats in the project. “Rather than just saying ‘no, not interested,’ someone might reveal our effort prematurely, undermining it before it can get off the ground. Worse, we might lose control of the project to others who would skew it to favor their own interests. These are very real hazards.”

But without sufficient financial or physical resources of their own, they saw no choice but to take this risk if the project were to go forward. Keeping those considerations in mind, they carefully reviewed the list of other AOSIS members to see who might be persuaded, capable, and trusted to contribute money or other resources to the effort.

Ibrahim, of course, had already given this matter some thought. “Only a handful of AOSIS states have even some of the financial, technical, and logistical resources to contribute meaningfully to the project. The primary candidates for financial support are the members with larger economies—Singapore, Cuba, Bahamas, and the Dominican Republic.”

“Singapore is the most obvious source of funding,” Ibrahim observed. “They can afford it most easily, and they could quietly provide the funds without public knowledge or protest. I suggest we start there. I’m not sure either the Bahamas or the Dominican Republic actually have the ability to provide the necessary financial resources on a confidential basis.”

Panday stared uneasily into the distance. “I don’t know. Singapore is becoming an unstable democracy these days, with an election coming that could change everything there. I wonder if the government could hide this activity from the aggressive new opposition party. If the transactions are disguised as some sort of economic development project, the opposition might stumble across it and start looking around for corruption and self-dealing. Once they find out where the money went, even if there’s no evidence of anyone lining their pockets, they will attack Prime Minister Li for this risky, unauthorized use of government funds.

“Although I find the current Cuban regime distasteful, my neighbor has a history of providing both funds and military equipment for its revolutionary projects around the world without accounting to anyone. That’s my suggestion.”

Fearing his plan would be derailed, Ibrahim interjected, “Do either of you know anyone from Cuba we could approach? I don’t.”

Panday slumped in his chair. He had never cultivated any relationship with anyone in the Cuban government. The US would never have approved Trinidad & Tobago building a close relationship with its communist neighbor.

Doyal sat silent through this discussion. At this point, he was unwilling to get more deeply involved in this plot. Reading his impassive face, Ibrahim didn’t even ask.

After what seemed like an interminable silence, Ibrahim spoke. “I don’t know anyone from Cuba either. So that leaves us with Singapore. I do know Wang Shu, the AOSIS Delegate from Singapore. I worked with her when she served as Singapore’s UNESCO Delegate,” he added, hoping that fact would arouse Doyal’s interest in meeting her. “She knows our issues and shares our strong views on addressing global warming. I suggest we meet with her tomorrow, here in Phuket.”

Panday suddenly felt rushed. “How do we know that this woman will keep your idea secret? If she tells the media about our rogue initiative, it will be buried in UN reviews and die a slow, painful death over the next five years!”

“And so will we renegades,” Doyal added with a smile.

Ibrahim responded calmly, despite his growing frustration with his colleagues. “I agree the risks you see are real, but there’s no way to avoid them if we want to go forward. We will face the same risk of exposure from anyone we talk to. Right now, we are all here, and Wang is too. I think she’s an honorable diplomat and civil servant. If we ask her to keep our conversation secret, I’m confident she will. If she says no, we’ll just have to start over.”

Panday tried again. “So are we left with Singapore and this young woman, Wang Shu? That’s it? No other suggestions?” He paused, looking at Doyal, who still had not spoken.

Doyal still remained silent, declining the implicit invitation to take part in any decision.

“What about Brunei?” Panday offered, grasping at straws. “The Sultan has more money than he knows what to do with, and there is no public governmental process to entangle him or us.”

Ibrahim quickly dispatched that possibility. “Brunei’s wealth depends solely on its oil and gas resources, generating about $10 billion annually. That’s a lot for its five hundred thousand people, but the $10 billion we need would take a big bite out of Brunei’s wealth. And I haven’t seen Brunei expressing any concern about climate change, beyond signing the Paris Accords along with everyone else. I think the sultan is a sure no.”

Lacking any alternative except to abandon the effort, Panday conceded. “Well, Ibrahim, I guess we’ll try your Singapore friend. I hope you are right about her reliability.”

“I’m as confident as one can ever be about such matters. I’ve worked with her at various conferences over the last decade. Doyal, can we meet in your suite tomorrow morning?”

Doyal silently acquiesced. Ibrahim immediately excused himself to call Wang Shu, not wanting to risk a change of heart by either Ambassador.

Panday and Doyal looked at each other, wondering if they had already gone too far. Ibrahim’s confidence about Wang seemed to satisfy them, though they still worried that he was a bit too rash. More experienced, with more professional wounds, Panday and Doyal understood that this effort could easily be disastrous for their careers.

The two senior Ambassadors would pay a higher price than Ibrahim, because they had earned higher professional status. Moreover, being older, they would have less time to recover from a career setback. Probably they would be finished, with no future opportunities, if this crazy scheme exploded in their faces.

“So far, Ibrahim has managed to avoid getting tarnished by some no-win personal or political controversy that damaged his reputation and career,” Doyal pointed out, “and he’s never suffered through the repeated policy setbacks that would chasten his enthusiasm for this high-risk strategy. I wonder whether we should follow him down this primrose path.

“By the way, he seems to know this Wang Shu quite well, and to have unlimited confidence in her. Do you think that is more than a purely professional judgment?”

Panday shrugged. “Who knows? Look, Doyal, the chances of this ever getting anywhere are very small. Do we really think Singapore will give us $10 billion? Or that some other State will allow us to use its territory as a base for these experiments? I don’t, but so far, I think we should give it a try. It’s a moral and professional responsibility to our people.”

They remained anxious, but in the end, they had let Ibrahim proceed. Ultimately, they saw no alternative that could save their countries.