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Chapter 9

Singapore

Back home in Singapore, Wang was still amazed at the audacity of Ibrahim’s proposition. Maybe this is the way things really get done in the international system, she speculated. Her first hurdle in seeking approval for Ibrahim’s request was simply scheduling a meeting alone with Singapore’s Prime Minister, Li Hongyi, without explaining the reason for it. His first open time for a one-on-one meeting was in mid-March, almost a month after her return from Phuket.

Wang managed to avoid giving a reason for the meeting by letting the Prime Minister’s staff assume it would be about promoting her to an ambassadorship. That meeting would have been easy, she mused ironically. It will take a lot more persuading to get past Prime Minister Li’s fear of entangling himself and Singapore in this risky adventure. He has to protect his political career and his family’s legacy and future.

Wang’s history was perfect for the Singapore diplomatic service. She had left Hong Kong for Singapore as a child in 1995 with her parents, in anticipation of the 1997 reversion of Hong Kong to Mainland Chinese control. They had seen enough of the brutality of Mao’s communism to harbor a deep distrust of the Mainland’s promises to keep Hong Kong’s capitalistic, democratic, cultural, social, and political order.

They preferred a Chinese society dedicated to the ancient Confucian precepts—justice, humaneness, respect for family and community tradition, and devotion to education. They believed that Singapore would show the world a different face of the Chinese people, one they could be proud of. And they wanted the best opportunities for their three children.

They were determined that Wang, their eldest, should excel as a student and gave her private tutors and year-round schooling. She was six years old when they moved. She grew up to be an attractive woman with a classic Han Chinese face; tall, thin frame; cooperative personality; and great proficiency in math and languages. She was among the highest-ranking students at the National University of Singapore. Then she studied at the Sorbonne in Paris for a year, learning French, improving her English, and absorbing European culture.

Wang’s only goal in life was to live up to her parents’ ambition for her: a career in the Singapore Diplomatic Service, where she and Singapore could help make the world a better place. Within a few years, she had distinguished herself from her Foreign Service contemporaries by her insightful analyses and graceful manner. Her prospects for becoming an ambassador soon, and eventually an ambassador to a Great Power, were excellent.

Her parents’ forward-looking attitude toward their daughter’s professional ambitions contrasted with their much more traditional notions about marriage and family life. Most of Wang’s female classmates had found their first male companions well before graduating college and married them as soon as possible. Perhaps because of their inexperience with the opposite sex, the divorce rate among these successful professional women was quite high, but not until after they had a child.

More dedicated to her schooling than others, Wang never found “the one” in her college years. Still single and now over thirty, she saw eligible men socially on rare occasions, at their initiative. Most men her age were either married and raising their children, or divorced and looking for a younger mate.

Wang was hesitant about proceeding with Ibrahim’s project. He is gambling his career on the success of this effort. He and the two Ambassadors might be able to afford that risk, though I would say that’s crazy. Anyway, for me, it risks everything my life is about. My career is my whole life.

The two Ambassadors are older and perhaps wiser, but Panday is in the twilight of his career, and both have already accumulated successes in many diplomatic efforts. They will disavow this whole effort if it collapses. All three come from tiny countries where they face little internal competition. I don’t have family wealth or status to fall back on, and at my age I could literally lose everything. In Singapore, the number of highly talented competitors for my job is huge. I admire these men’s desire to save the world, even if the approach is unorthodox, and I agree there are no workable alternatives. Logically, this approach deserves a try. But I will be gambling my life to promote this wild scheme. In the end, however, Wang felt she had given her word that she would try.

Thinking it over, she realized the issue wasn’t really the cost. Singapore could easily fund the US$10 billion SRM project over three years from the US$200 billion Asian International Development Aid Fund it had created and supported for several years. She had worked at the Fund for a few years, and she knew how to arrange the transfer of funds with minimal oversight.

No, it was about the international and domestic political risks. The only person who could approve this project was Prime Minister Li, the second son of Lee Hsien Loong and a grandson of the late Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew—the third generation of the Lee family (now “Li” in the Mainland Chinese Hanyu pinyin) to lead Singapore’s government since before its independence from Malaysia in 1965. Though Singapore was nominally a democratic State governed by a president and a parliament, in practice, the Li family had the first and last word on everything of consequence, despite a rising chorus of dissatisfaction over the nepotism in Singapore’s government leadership.

Singapore had joined Malaysia at the time of its independence from Great Britain in 1963, but the dominant Chinese population of Singapore quickly discovered the disadvantages of subordination to the Malay-dominated Government in Kuala Lumpur. The Malaysian Government in turn feared that Malaysia’s ambitious Chinese and Indian minorities would one day band together to take control of the Malaysian Parliament, leaving the Malays without access to governmental power. The two entities quickly agreed to an amicable separation. They formally announced Singapore’s independence from Malaysia just two years later, in August 1965.

The day of Wang’s meeting with Prime Minister Li finally arrived. After the usual formalities, Wang began explaining the SRM project and its importance. As soon as the Prime Minister understood what she was talking about, he was visibly dismayed. He impatiently laid out the dangers to Singapore of any involvement in this scheme:

“I assumed you wanted to see me to discuss giving you an ambassadorship, which I would view favorably. You are superbly qualified. I had no idea what you had in mind, or I would have refused even to meet with you. Do you realize that there is a significant chance that your island diplomat friends will just line their pockets with our money? Even if they don’t just disappear entirely, they will certainly take a “commission” off the top, either directly or through kickbacks. What happens when that is discovered?

“More important, what will it do to Singapore’s politically neutral status when the world discovers that we have funded a clandestine experiment on the global climate? We have a reputation as a city-state that respects all points of view, avoids entanglement in controversial issues, and welcomes investors from around the world. We take pride in being the Switzerland of Asia, only better.

“We depend entirely on the United Nations, the WTO, and the broad network of international institutions and international law and customs for our survival. If they are weakened or we are suddenly viewed with suspicion or hostility, we are in great danger. As a result, foreign investment would dwindle to a trickle, and banks would see net outflows of liquid assets.

“We wouldn’t last a week against any modern foreign army or opportunistic terrorist organization that chose to plunder our island, unless the world came to our support. Despite our first-class military machine, we have no more real defense than Crimea.

“Besides, there is no reason to believe that this pie-in-the-sky veil project will work. It’s a crazy idea, and we can’t afford to gamble on it. I’m sorry, but the answer is no.”

Wang Shu paused to allow Prime Minister Li to settle down after his passionate diatribe. Then she methodically responded to each of his concerns.

“Thank you for those kind words about my qualifications. I truly believe this project is more important than my future career as an ambassador. It’s about the survival of human civilization here in Singapore and around the planet.”

Then she quickly pivoted to her carefully prepared positive arguments.

It’s important to remember that Singapore is not a disinterested bystander in this unfolding climate disaster. We are surrounded by ocean. Increasingly frequent and powerful monsoons will destroy a large part of our beautiful city sooner or later.

While we may be able to build sea walls at great expense to protect parts of our coastline, the necessary diversion of human and material resources will drag down our real wealth as surely as if we were physically throwing gold into the ocean. It may make the GDP and employment numbers look good, but such defensive mitigation spending doesn’t produce any useful goods or services for our people.

We will certainly survive longer than most other island states, but many of our trading partners will suffer much greater losses. Low-lying coastal cities like Shanghai, Kolkata, and Miami will lose a large part of their useful land area, with economic consequences that will significantly weaken the entire global economy on which we depend. Indonesia and The Philippines will lose many of their smaller islands, creating refugees and disruptive diplomatic controversies over international land and sea boundaries.

Monsoons, unpredictable weather, and the loss of many beneficial animal and insect species will decimate agricultural production around the world, even on higher ground. Hundreds of thousands of fishermen and farmers in coastal areas in Bangladesh will lose everything. Many thousands of people have already lost everything in low-lying island states like Seychelles and the Maldives.

These developments will create massive refugee outflows that will make the exodus from famine-plagued and war-torn countries like Syria and Somalia look like small problems. Many refugees will try to come to Singapore, probably more than any other developed state in the region.

The international community will pressure us to take in more refugees than our public will want to absorb. We have seen what that issue has done to the political balance in the US, the UK, France, and Germany.

If successful, this SRM project could postpone and mitigate these disasters. By the time the world’s governments find out about it and track down the source of the funds—if they ever do—its beneficial effects will be evident to all.

You will be recognized as a visionary leader who demonstrated the kind of long-range focus and imaginative planning that the Li family has been so proud of. Ignorant, shortsighted politicians in the US and elsewhere will be exposed as the fools they are.

If you do give your approval, I propose to be watching where the money goes myself. I know the Development Fund’s systems well. The money can be funneled to the project through a secondary bank in Taipei in ways that will not reveal its origin and would be disbursed only when needed.

The best way to keep close track of the project’s physical progress is for me to join the staff of our embassy in the country where the operations are conducted, ideally on “special assignment” as a midlevel environmental officer with miscellaneous, undefined responsibilities. That may look to others like a demotion from my present position, but I’m willing to take that step.

As for the threat of corruption, I can’t promise that every penny will be spent in the most efficient manner, but I am proposing to put the funds all in the hands of just one individual, Ambassador Mohamed Ibrahim of the Maldives. I have worked with him for many years now at a variety of international meetings, sometimes as an ally, other times as an opponent. I trust him. He has always done what he said he would do, no tricks, no shading the truth, no last-minute switches or ‘extras.’

Wang Shu was gilding the lily on Ibrahim’s behalf. Her professional experience with him was not that deep. She did trust his professionalism, however, and the Prime Minister needed comfort on that point.

Prime Minister Li sat back in his chair. His desire to prove he was not simply the grandson of the late Lee Kwan Yew enticed him to consider this risky, yet dramatic and humanitarian step. He was egotistical enough to want to be recognized as a bold leader in his own right who deserved public support. And he was impressed by Wang’s willingness to put her own career on the line.

“I can see your arguments. I will sleep on it and give you an answer. But I can’t afford to be reckless with Singapore’s finances or infatuated with a frivolous pet project whose purpose is to make me look important. Don’t get your hopes up.”

He paused, seeing Wang’s disappointment. “I’m sorry. I was expecting a much happier ending for this meeting.”

Wang left the Prime Minister’s office utterly dejected. My first high-level diplomatic challenge, and I’ve failed. I gave it my best effort. But the outcome is inevitable. He will say no. The more he thinks about this project, the more of an irrational gamble he’ll realize it is. So all I have done is jeopardize my career and probably dash my prospects for ever becoming an ambassador.

Four days later, to her surprise, the Prime Minister called Wang back to his office.

“Good afternoon, Ms. Wang. Please sit down. I’ve thought a lot about your plan. I want you to understand that we can’t just write a blank check. You will need to be informed and involved at every step in the project. If it appears to be getting off track, I will need to know at once, and you must be able to cut off all funding and shut the operation down instantly, even if the money has not run out.

“Your colleague Mohamed Ibrahim needs to understand our rules at the outset and promise to honor them. No one can know that anyone from Singapore is involved except you two. If the project goes badly, I will disown you as a miscreant, entirely on a frolic of your own. I may even say you profited from your corruption.

“Finally, you are right that I must assign you to the embassy in the country where the project is being carried out. It certainly will look like a demotion. I can’t make any promises about your future even if the project succeeds.”

Wang’s intense pleasure at his decision prompted Li to wonder if she was hiding some personal interest in this risky project. Instinctively cautious, he added,