Читать книгу Russian Cyber Operations - Scott Jasper - Страница 25

The 2015 Russian National Security Strategy defines national interests and priorities in the sphere of domestic and foreign policy. The strategic planning document focuses on national defense, state security, economic growth, education, health care, culture, ecology, and strategic stability.²⁷ While the 2009 version had the same basic concerns, the new document “contains fiercer and more explicit criticism of the West.”²⁸ It directly accuses the United States and NATO of “pursuing actions that cause instability and threaten Russian national security.”²⁹ The 2015 National Security Strategy claims Western powers are “flouting international law” and intervening in “countries to change their regimes, consequently spawning terrorism” and “destabilizing the international security environment.”³⁰ The buildup of NATO is singled out as a threat that could spark conflict “because the alliance is expanding its military infrastructure towards Russian borders.”³¹ Primarily in reaction to Western practices, the 2015 National Security Strategy makes it clear that the “Kremlin considers Russia to be a major power within the global system.”³² It consequently recognizes that there has been an increase in Russia’s role “in resolving the most important international problems, settling military conflicts, and ensuring strategic stability and the supremacy of international law in interstate relations.”³³

The recognition of an increased role in the global system confirms Moscow’s intentions to assert influence with all the tools at its disposal.³⁴ The 2015 National Security Strategy states with flagrant transparency that “interrelated political, military, military-technical, diplomatic, economic, informational, and other measures are being developed and implemented in order to ensure strategic deterrence and the prevention of armed conflicts.”³⁵ While the strategy appears to prioritize the use of nonmilitary methods and means based on the “principles of rational sufficiency and effectiveness,” it does note that the capacity of the armed forces is essential for the achievement of both precepts of deterrence and prevention. Thus, plans to improve the state’s military organization are outlined in the new strategy, including “equipping the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and agencies with modern weapons and military and specialist hardware.”³⁶

The 2015 National Security Strategy also identifies a number of domestic challenges that could undermine the ability to play a leading role on the world’s stage. In the sphere of the economy, the main threats to national security are a stagnant export / raw materials model, lagging introduction of future technologies, a progressive shortage of labor, and the persistence of a shadow economy and conditions for corruption. In addition, restrictive economic measures imposed against Russia are seen as a negative impact on economic security. Although Russia has survived four years of sanctions,³⁷ gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2017 was far lower than neighboring countries such as Poland and Turkey.³⁸ In regard to demographics, the 2015 National Security Strategy seeks to create the conditions for stimulating the total fertility rate, which at 1.3 births per woman is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 to maintain a stable population, and reducing mortality, where the death rate is far higher than the world’s average, reflected in a life expectancy of Russian men at 59 years.³⁹ For Russia, a country with a GDP ($1.28 trillion) smaller than that of the state of Texas ($1.70 trillion), the need to modernize the economy and overcome demographic pressures hampers the fielding of a military worthy of a great power.⁴⁰

The 2015 Russian National Security Strategy states that the “fundamental principles of military policy” are set out in the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The latest such document was approved by President Putin on December 25, 2014. This edition contains little that is new, other than an emphasis on information warfare and concerns over the establishment of regimes in bordering states whose policy threatens Russian interests.⁴¹ The Military Doctrine opens with an assessment of world development as “characterized by the strengthening of global competition.”⁴² It identifies main external military risks, including the expansion of the NATO alliance, deployment of military contingents and exercises in territories contiguous with the Russian Federation, and deployment of strategic missile defense systems. It also describes the features of current military conflicts, including the integrated employment of military force and political, economic, informational, or other nonmilitary measures, and the use of indirect and asymmetric methods of operations. It recognizes that information and communication technologies (for cyber operations) are being used for military-political purposes counter to international law and are being “aimed against sovereignty, political independence, [and] territorial integrity of states.”⁴³ Although the use and aim of these technologies is stated as a danger to the Russian Federation, the case studies in Estonia and Georgia demonstrate the contrary—of a “mirror image” imposed by Russia on other nations on its periphery.