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Decision Tree Analysis is a method describing decision making by considering alternatives and the consequences of their choice. This method is used if predicted scenarios and results of actions are probabilistic. Decision Tree Analysis is displayed as a chart and reflects the probabilities and magnitudes of costs, the benefits of each logical chain of events and future decisions, and uses an analysis of the expected monetary value to determine the relative cost of alternative actions.

Diagram: “Decision Tree Analysis”

When forming a tree, the following four types of graphic symbols are used:

• Squares – decision places.

• Circles – the places where the outcomes appear.

• Dotted lines – possible solutions.

• Triangles or straight lines – possible outcomes.

Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for each alternative should be estimated. It mostly consists of the sums of the winnings estimates to be multiplied by the likelihood of the winnings realization, for all possible options.