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Thinking about future competitors

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In Chapter 5, I talk about your vision for the future, and how important it is to keep your eyes open to trends in the economy, the environment and in your industry. This macro way of thinking is also useful at the early planning stages of your business, particularly if you spend a while thinking not just who your competitors are right now, but also who your competitors could be in one, two or five years’ time.

Ask yourself questions relating to the following areas:

 Automation potential: Could any existing competitors automate their processes using advanced technology and, therefore, become more of a threat than they already are?

 Big players coming to town: Could a franchise chain or large company move into your village, suburb or town and take lots of your customers? (In my village, the longstanding boutique wine store struggled when two big liquor chains moved within 3 kilometres.)

 Buyout of minor competitors by a larger competitor with more capital and muscle: Could one of your existing competitors be bought out by someone with more capital and better distribution and, in the process, become a very formidable competitor? (Think about how some smaller gourmet food brands have been purchased by supermarket chains and suddenly appear in every store.)

 Changes in technology: Could changes in technology mean your product or service becomes obsolete? (Think of the long-lost corner video store, the appliance repair technician or the 24-hour photo lab.)

 Cheaper imports: Could the goods you provide be substituted by imported goods if the exchange rate changes?

 Customers doing it themselves: Could your main customer or customers decide creating your product or providing your service in-house makes more sense? (Think of the big supermarket chains that now manufacture their own generic food lines.)

 Life cycle of business idea: Is the life cycle of your business reaching maturity or beyond, meaning numerous competitors and fewer profits to go around? (Think of the mobile coffee vans that were once a clever niche business but are now a dime a dozen.)

 Offshoring of labour: Could the services you provide be performed offshore instead? (Almost anything that’s mostly labour and can be done on a computer is vulnerable to offshoring.)

 Service offered online: Could the service you provide be sold online and, therefore, open to international competition? (Even some things that I would never have imagined could go online have done so. I don’t go to my local yoga class any more, but instead log onto a yoga website that offers hundreds of pre-recorded classes to fit any duration, level or style of yoga.)

Small Business for Dummies

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